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The San Diego Padres (81-64) and Seattle Mariners (73-71) open a 2-game interleague series Tuesday. First pitch from T-Mobile Park is set for 9:40 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Padres vs. Mariners odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Mariners lead 2-0
The Padres dropped 2 of 3 games over the weekend against the San Francisco Giants, and they’ve lost 3 of the past 4 outings. The Over has cashed in the past 2 games, with San Diego allowing 6.5 runs per game (RPG).
San Diego has a losing record in the past 11 games, going 5-6 since Aug. 28, while the Over-Under has split 5-5-1 during the span.
For the Mariners, they’ve started to piece things together a little bit, winning 4 of the past 5 outings, scoring 6 or more runs in each of the victory. The Over is 3-1-1 during the 5-game span.
These teams met in a 2-game set at Petco Park July 9-10, with the Mariners sweeping the series by a combined score of 10-3, with the Over-Under going 1-1.
Padres at Mariners projected starters
RHP Yu Darvish vs. RHP George Kirby
Darvish (4-3, 3.51 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.12 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 in 59 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 2 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 4 H (1 HR), 2 BB, 4 K in 6-5 home win in 10 innings vs. Detroit Tigers last Wednesday
- 2024 road splits: 2-0, 1.59 ERA, 17 IP, 3 ER, 1 HR, 0.76 WHIP, .153 opponents’ batting average (OBA), 4 BB, 16 K in 3 starts
- Career vs. Mariners: 7-4, 3.57 ERA, 95 2/3 IP, 38 ER, 3 HR, 1.24 WHIP, 9.1 K/9 in 15 starts
Kirby (11-10, 3.61 ERA) makes his 30th start. He has a 1.11 WHIP, 1.1 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 in 167 IP.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 9 K in 16-3 road victory vs. Oakland A’s last Wednesday
- 2024 home splits: 5-4, 2.94 ERA, 70 1/3 IP, 23 ER, 3 HR, 1.05 WHIP, .241 OBA, 9 BB, 77 K in 12 starts
- Career vs. Padres: Loss, 3 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 11 H (1 HR), 0 BB, 3 K in 10-3 road setback June 7, 2023, in only career start vs. SD
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Padres at Mariners odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:55 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Padres -116 (bet $116 to win $100) | Mariners -102 (bet $102 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres -1.5 (+158) | Mariners +1.5 (-192)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Padres at Mariners picks and predictions
Prediction
Mariners 3, Padres 2
Moneyline
The MARINERS (-102) are a solid play at home as the slight underdogs, as Kirby has been electric at T-Mobile Park.
In addition, Darvish is making just his 2nd start since returning from the restricted list. He was pretty shaky last time out against Detroit, and he shouldn’t be trusted until he snaps back into a groove.
Run line/Against the spread
If you’re a little more conservative, and like the Mariners +1.5 (-192) a little, but feel the need for insurance, taking Seattle on the run line is just a bit too expensive. Seattle will cost you nearly 2 times your potential return.
The M’s have been playing better baseball recently, as they make a push for a postseason spot. They’re a solid play behind Kirby, so if you like the Mariners, just go straight up for the better value.
PASS.
Over/Under
UNDER 7 (-115) is a bit of a low number, but a solid play in this matchup.
While Seattle has been getting it done with offense lately, scoring 6 or more runs in 4 of the past 5 games, it will use pitching here. Kirby has been great at home, while Darvish has been solid this season on the road.
Expect plenty of donuts, especially in the first few innings. In fact, UNDER 3.5 (-102) – FIRST 5 INNINGS TOTAL is worth a roll of the dice, too.
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