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The Toronto Blue Jays (67-74) and Atlanta Braves (76-64) begin a 3-game series Friday. First pitch from Truist Park is set for 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Blue Jays vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Blue Jays won all 3 meetings in 2023
The Blue Jays head to Atlanta after dropping 2 games at home to Philadelphia. They played the Phillies tight; the total run differential was 3 runs. Toronto is 15-20 during interleague play and the Blue Jays are playing out the string at this point, 14 games out in the AL East.
Atlanta took 2 of 3 games against the Colorado Rockies to begin their 6-game homestand. They outscored Colorado 9-5 in the 3-game series. The Braves are 38-29 at home. Atlanta is tied with the New York Mets for the last NL Wild Card spot.
Blue Jays at Braves projected starters
RHP Kevin Gausman vs. LHP Max Fried
Gausman (12-10, 4.07 ERA) makes his 28th career start. He has a 1.23 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 157 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 4 BB, 4 K in 2-0 road loss against Minnesota Twins Aug. 30
- 2024 away splits: 7-4, 2.52 ERA (75 IP, 27 R (21 ER), 1.12 WHIP, 8.2 K/9 in 13 starts
- Career vs Braves: 0-0, 1.32 ERA (13 2/3 IP, 2 ER), 0.98 WHIP, 4.8 K/9 in 2 starts
Fried (8-8, 3.52 ERA) makes his 25th start. He has a 1.21 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 140 2/3 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 7 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 4 BB, 4 K in 3-0 road loss against Philadelphia Phillies Saturday
- 2024 home splits: 2-3, 4.05 ERA (53 1/3 IP, 25 R (24 ER), 1.43 WHIP, 7.3 K/9 in 9 starts
- Career vs Blue Jays: 1-0, 1.50 ERA (12 IP, 2 ER), 0.92 WHIP, 5.3 K/9 in 2 starts
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Blue Jays at Braves odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:34 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Blue Jays +152 (bet $100 to win $152) | Braves -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread: Blue Jays +1.5 (-140) | Braves -1.5 (+116)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Blue Jays at Braves picks and predictions
Prediction
Braves 4, Blue Jays 2
Moneyline
PASS.
The Braves (-180) will take the opener of this series at home, but I’m definitely taking the run line odds.
Run line/Against the spread
BET BRAVES -1.5 (+116).
The Atlanta Braves are in a must-win situation as they take on the Blue Jays at home, making them a solid pick to cover the -1.5 run line. With their playoff hopes on the line, the Braves can’t afford to drop games like this against a team that’s just playing out the string. Atlanta has been strong in interleague play this season (27-13), and they’ve held their own at home with a 38-29 record at Truist Park.
On the other side, the Blue Jays are struggling, still winless in September and holding a shaky 33-39 record on the road. Toronto’s offense has also had trouble against lefties, batting just .231 as a team. Given how much more the Braves need this win, expect them to come out strong and cover the run line.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 8 (-110).
Taking the Under between the Blue Jays and Braves seems like a smart move, especially given the pitching matchup. While I’m leaning toward the Braves to win, Gausman has been lights out on the road, allowing just 2 ER over his last 12 2/3 IP.
These teams also tend to play lower-scoring games, with the Under hitting in 5 of their last 7 matchups. Recently, Toronto has gone Under in 6 of their last 8 games, and Atlanta has hit the Under in 5 straight. With both teams leaning on their pitching, this one should be a low-scoring battle.
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