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The Pittsburgh Pirates (62-71) and Cleveland Guardians (76-58) open a 3-game interleague series Friday. First pitch from Progressive Field is set for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Pirates vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Guardians lead 2-1
The Pirates were swept at home against the Chicago Cubs Monday through Wednesday, including a disappointing 14-10 loss in the finale. Rookie Paul Skenes left after 5 IP with a 10-3 lead, but the bullpen proceeded to blow it. The collapse was so bad that even Livvy Dunne, Skenes’ girlfriend, had an opinion on social media.
Since Aug. 18, the Bucs are just 4-7 in 11 games, and the Over has cashed in 5 of the past 6 outings, with the pitching staff conceding 10 or more runs in 3 of the previous 5 contests.
The Guardians stopped the bleeding by salvaging the series finale Wednesday against the red-hot Kansas City Royals, 7-5. Cleveland had dropped the 1st 3 games of the series to slip into a dead heat in the AL Central. With the win, and a Royals loss Thursday in Houston, the Guards are back up to 1 1/2 games up in the division with 28 games to play.
Cleveland is still just 4-9 in the past 13 games, while the Over has outpaced the Under 6-4 across the past 10 outings. The pitching staff has allowed 5 or more runs in 8 of the previous 10 contests.
Pirates at Guardians projected starters
LHP Bailey Falter vs. RHP Ben Lively
Falter (6-7, 4.25 ERA) makes his 23rd start. He has a 1.26 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 6.3 K/9 in 112 1/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 7 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 3-0 road victory vs. Los Angeles Angels Wednesday
- 2024 road splits: 3-4, 4.42 ERA (55 IP, 27 ER), 1.25 WHIP, .257 opponents’ batting average (OBA), 17 BB, 38 K in 11 starts
- August 2024 stats: 1-0, 5.94 ERA (16 2/3 IP, 11 ER) 1 HR, 5 BB, 15 K in 4 starts
- Has never faced Guardians
Lively (11-8, 3.62 ERA) makes his 24th start. He has a 1.19 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 in 126 2/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 6 2/3 IP, 3 R (2 ER), 5 H, 1 BB, 4 K in 13-5 home victory vs. Texas Rangers Saturday
- 2024 home splits: 7-2, 3.34 ERA (62 IP, 23 ER), 1.16 WHIP, .228 OBA, 19 BB, 46 K in 11 starts
- August 2024 stats: 2-2, 4.28 ERA (27 1/3 IP, 13 ER) 5 HR, 12 BB, 16 K in 5 starts
- Career vs. Pirates: 0-2, 3.38 ERA (10 2/3 IP, 4 ER), 1.69 WHIP, 6.8 K/9 in 3 appearances (2 starts)
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Pirates at Guardians odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:12 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Pirates +138 (bet $100 to win $138) | Guardians -164 (bet $164 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Pirates +1.5 (-146) | Guardians -1.5 (+122)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Pirates at Guardians picks and predictions
Prediction
Guardians 5, Pirates 3
Moneyline
The safe play is backing the GUARDIANS (-164), and they’re not priced out of line. Cleveland showed some signs of life in the series finale Wednesday against the Royals, and the day off to refresh and refocus should do the Guardians a solid.
The Pirates (+138) are going to have a hard time putting Wednesday’s epic collapse against the Cubbies in the rear-view mirror.
Run line/Against the spread
If you’re a little more adventurous, forget the moneyline and back the GUARDIANS -1.5 (+122).
Cleveland has gotten tremendous pitching from Lively over the course of the season, especially at home. While the Guardians have managed just 5 victories since Aug. 14, each have been by 2 or more runs. So, if you like Cleveland to win, you should like it to cover, too.
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Over/Under
UNDER 8.5 (-105) is the lean, but go with a half-unit play at most.
The Over and Under alternated in the 4-game series with Kansas City, while the Under holds a 3-2 edge in the past 5 games at home. In interleague play, Cleveland has cashed low in 4 of the past 5 against NL teams.
For the Pirates, they’re the concern with betting low. The Over cashed in all 3 games against the Cubs, with the pitching staff pounded for 41 total runs in the ugly sweep. It isn’t long since the Pirates were pitching well, though, allowing just a single run in a 3-game span Aug. 20-22.
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