New York Mets at San Diego Padres odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s New York Mets at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The New York Mets (66-61) and San Diego Padres (72-56) play the opener of a 4-game set at PETCO Park Thursday at 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mets vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Mets lead 3-0

The Mets took 2 of 3 from the Baltimore Orioles with a 4-3 victory Wednesday. OF Jesse Winker hit a pinch-hit, walkoff homer in the 9th.  They sit 1 1/2 games out of the final Wild Card spot. The Mets are 5-3 over their last 8 games.

The Padres dropped the finale against the Minnesota Twins Wednesday 11-4. They won the previous 2 games and are 15-5 over the last 20 games. OF Jackson Merrill has turned it up a notch, hitting .311 with 8 extra-base hits and 11 RBIs over his last 12 games.

Mets at Padres projected starters

RHP Luis Severino vs. RHP Dylan Cease

Severino (8-6, 3.91 ERA) makes his 25th start. He has a 1.22 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 in 142 2/3 IP.

  • Last start: Win, 9 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 8 K Saturday against Miami Marlins
  • 1 career start vs. Padres: No-decision, 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 1 H, 3 BB, 5 K

Cease (12-9, 3.46 ERA) makes his 27th start. He has a 1.03 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 11.3 K/9 in 148 1/3 IP.

  • Last start: Win, 5 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 3 H, 5 BB, 5 K Saturday at Colorado Rockies
  • 2 career starts vs. Mets: 0-2, 9.28 ERA, 1.78 WHIP, 11 K in 10 2/3 IP

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Mets at Padres odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:56 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Mets +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Padres -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets +1.5 (-175) | Padres -1.5 (+145)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: -125 | U: +105)

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Mets at Padres picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 5, Padres 3

Moneyline

I like the Mets here as Severino is coming off a complete-game shutout with 8 K’s. Cease has been erratic with 2+ walks in 5 of his last 7 starts. He also got shelled for 7 ER in 3 2/3 IP against the Mets earlier this year.

Take the METS +135.

Run line/Against the spread

I like LUIS SEVERINO OVER 3.5 K’S (-149) here. The Padres are the toughest team to whiff in baseball, but Sevvy has 4+ K’s in 18 of 24 starts this season. Take advantage of this overcorrection.

Over/Under

It’s slated to be a 71-degree evening with a 9-mph wind blowing left-to-right. These teams are 1-1-1 O/U against one another and 2-7-1 O/U in the last 10 matchups. Both teams are swinging the bats well, though. Both teams 6-4 O/U in their last 10, and I’m taking the OVER 7 (-125).

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