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The Miami Marlins (46-78) welcome the Arizona Diamondbacks (69-56) to loanDepot Park Monday for the 1st game of a 3-game series. First pitch is set for 6:40 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Marlins lead 2-1
The Marlins, who are 58-66 against the spread (ATS), beat the New York Mets 3-2 Sunday to avoid a sweep. Miami has lost 3 of its last 4 games and 6 of its last 9, but it hasn’t been swept in a 3-game series since July 2-4 against the Boston Red Sox. Miami is 24-39 at home.
The Diamondbacks were swept on the road in their last series, losing 8-7 Sunday, 6-1 Saturday and 5-4 Friday to the Tampa Bay Rays. The Diamondbacks are still a playoff-contending team, sitting 3rd in the NL West. They are 32-30 on the road and 61-64 ATS. Arizona is 1-5 ATS in its last 6.
Diamondbacks at Marlins projected starters
RHP Brandon Pfaadt vs. Undecided
Pfaadt (7-6, 3.98 ERA) makes his 25th start. He has a 1.11 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 in 144 2/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 0 BB, 11 K in 5-4 home win over the Colorado Rockies Monday
- 2024 away stats: 2-4, 4.24 ERA (76 1/3 IP, 36 ER), 1.13 WHIP, 8.1 K/9 in 13 starts
- Career vs. Marlins: 0-1, 10.80 ERA (5 IP, 2 ER), 1.80 WHIP, 5.4 K/9 in 1 start
There’s no inclination on who will take the mound for the Marlins, but the odds being posted suggest they shouldn’t have a major outcome on the battle.
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Diamondbacks at Marlins odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:38 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Diamondbacks -205 (bet $205 to win $100) | Marlins +172 (bet $100 to win $172)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Diamondbacks -1.5 (-118) | Marlins +1.5 (-102)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Diamondbacks at Marlins picks and predictions
Prediction
Diamondbacks 5, Marlins 4
Moneyline
PASS.
The Diamondbacks are too pricey here, and they aren’t worth wagering almost double your money for half a unit of potential return. The Marlins similarly aren’t worth the moneyline risk.
Run line/Against the spread
BET MARLINS +1.5 (-102).
The Diamondbacks are the better team here, but they haven’t been beating opponents by a sizable margin as of late. They are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games and 3-3 straight up in those battles, going 1-2 ATS in their wins.
In its series prior to Tampa Bay, Arizona played Colorado, another one of the worst teams in the MLB. It swept the series yet was 1-2 ATS, winning 2 of the 3 games by 1 run. Miami is 26-21 ATS as a home underdog as well.
Considering those trends, expect a close game and take the underdog. Back MARLINS +1.5 (-102).
Over/Under
BET OVER 8 (-115).
Both teams are trending toward the Over as of late. The Marlins are 4-3 O/U in their last 7 games, scoring at least 3 runs in 6 of those 7 and at least 5 runs in 4 of those 7.
The Diamondbacks are 6-2 O/U in their last 8 games and have scored at least 4 runs in 7 of the 8 games while allowing at least 4 runs in 6 of their last 7 outings. Considering those trends, back OVER 8 (-115).
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