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The Colorado Rockies (40-70) and San Diego Padres (59-51) open a 3-game set at PETCO Park Friday. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Rockies vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Rockies lead 5-2
The Rockies won 2 of 3 games at the Los Angeles Angels. They wrapped up the series with a 5-4 victory in 10 innings as +108 underdogs Thursday with the Over (8.5) hitting. RF Jake Cave hit a game-tying 2-run HR in the 9th inning, and Colorado scored on a throwing error by Angels RHP Hans Crouse in the 10th.
The Padres are coming off a 2-game sweep of the visiting Los Angeles Dodgers. After taking the Tuesday opener 6-5 as +118 underdogs, they won 8-1 as -134 favorites Wednesday as the Over (7) cashed. RHP Dylan Cease allowed 1 ER on 3 hits and 3 walks with 6 K’s in 5 2/3 IP in his 1st start since his no-hitter at the Washington Nationals July 25.
The Rockies have won the last 4 meetings against San Diego.
Rockies at Padres projected starters
LHP Austin Gomber vs. RHP Randy Vásquez
Gomber (2-7, 4.79 ERA) makes his 21st start. He has a 1.32 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 6.4 K/9 through 109 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 3 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 5-4 setback at San Francisco Giants Sunday
- 2024 road stats: 1-6, 5.73 ERA (55 IP, 35 ER), 1.46 WHIP, 7.2 K/9 in 11 starts
- 2024 vs. Padres: 1-0, 0.82 ERA (11 IP, 1 ER), 1.00 WHIP, 5.7 K/9 in 2 starts
- Career vs. Padres (regular season): 3-3, 3.09 ERA (58 1/3 IP, 20 ER), 1.18 WHIP, 6.9 K/9 in 14 appearances (10 starts)
Vásquez (3-6, 4.82 ERA) makes his 16th start. The rookie has a 1.56 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 5.8 K/9 through 71 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 2 IP, 6 ER, 4 H, 4 BB, 2 K in 8-6 defeat at Baltimore Orioles Sunday
- 2024 home stats: 1-3, 3.44 ERA (36 2/3 IP, 14 ER), 1.36 WHIP, 6.1 K/9 in 7 starts
- Career vs. Rockies: 0-1, 12.79 ERA (6 1/3 IP, 9 ER), 2.68 WHIP, 2.8 K/9 in 2 starts this season
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Rockies at Padres odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:55 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Rockies +150 (bet $100 to win $150) | Padres -185 (bet $185 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Rockies +1.5 (-145) | Padres -1.5 (+120)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -120 | U: +100)
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Rockies at Padres picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 6, Rockies 3
Moneyline
The Padres (-185) are 9-1 in their last 10 games overall, and it’s unlikely that they’ll lose a 5th straight meeting to Colorado. However, it’s hard to stay profitable long term in MLB betting into lines with this much vig.
PASS. Bet the run line and/or total instead.
Run line/Against the spread
When the Rockies lose, they tend to get blown out. Five of Colorado’s last 6 losses have been by 3 or more runs, and the Rockies are just 26-31 as run-line underdogs this season, the 3rd-worst mark in MLB.
Gomber has allowed just 1 ER in 11 IP against the Padres this season, but that type of production won’t likely continue. The market is projecting that San Diego will score 4 or more runs, as Gomber has given up 4-plus ER in 7 of his last 9 starts.
Gomber probably won’t even pitch a full 6 innings, leading the way for the Padres to pile on against the worst bullpen in MLB (30th with a 5.53 ERA according to FanGraphs.com).
BET PADRES -1.5 (+120).
Over/Under
The Over has hit in 4 straight meetings between these teams. Gomber has allowed an average of 4.1 runs per game in his last 9 starts, with the Over going 7-2 in those contests. Gomber has been lucky to post such impressive stats against the Padres this season, but that luck should run out Friday, helping the Over hit in the process.
BET OVER 8 (-120).
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