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The Philadelphia Phillies (65-39) welcome the Cleveland Guardians (62-42) to Citizens Bank Park Sunday for the finale of their 3-game series. First pitch is set for 1:35 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Guardians vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Tied 1-1
The Guardians opened the series with a 3-1 win, closing as a +163 underdog Friday. They then lost 8-0 Saturday and were again a heavy +134 underdog.
Cleveland has won 3 of its last 5 games, allowing 4 or fewer runs in 4 of those. However, it has struggled over the last 10 days, having lost 5 of its last 8. The Guardians sit atop the AL Central and are 29-27 on the road.
The Phillies are among the best teams in the majors at home, sitting with a 38-17 record at Citizens Bank Park. Philadelphia has also been unreliable as of late, losing 6 of its last 9 and scoring 4 or fewer in 6 of those games. It is 54-50 against the spread (ATS) on the season and sits atop the NL East.
Guardians at Phillies projected starters
LHP Joey Cantillo vs. LHP Kolby Allard
Cantillo makes his MLB debut at age 24. He has a 1.58 WHIP, 6.2 BB/9 and 12.2 K/9 in 30 1/3 IP in 9 minor league starts.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 6 K in a 6-4 loss to the Louisville Bats on July 20
- 2024 away splits (minor league stats): 16 H, 0 HR, 9 BB, 22 K and .250 opponent’s batting average in 4 appearances
Allard makes his 1st start this season. He had a 1.62 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 in 12 1/3 IP in 2023.
- 2023 home splits: 0-1, 5.68 ERA (6 1/3 IP, 4 ER), 1.90 WHIP, 1 HR, 12.8 K/9 in 2 starts
- Career vs. Guardians: 0-0, 4.32 ERA (8 1/3 IP, 4 ER), 1.59 WHIP, 7.6 K/9 in 2 appearances (1 start)
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Guardians at Phillies odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:01 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Guardians +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Phillies -142 (bet $142 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians +1.5 (-164) | Phillies -1.5 (+136)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -120 | U: -102)
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Guardians at Phillies picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 6, Guardians 3
Moneyline
PASS.
The Phillies have the best win rate at home and should come out on top. However, they aren’t worth playing as an expensive moneyline favorite.
Run line/Against the spread
BET PHILLIES -1.5 (+136).
Philadelphia is 29-25 AT at home, the 5th-best covering rate in the majors. It will also be taking on a pitcher who has yet to pitch at the highest level. The Phillies have covered in 5 straight wins and are 4-3 ATS in their last 7 home games.
The Guardians are 3-3 straight up over their last 6 but are just 1-5 ATS in those games. They are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games and are 29-27 ATS on the road this season which sits in the lower half of the MLB in cover rate.
Considering those trends, take PHILLIES -1.5 (+136).
Over/Under
BET UNDER 9.5 (-102).
Neither offense has been electric over the last few weeks.
The Guardians have scored 3 or fewer in 7 of their last 8 games and are 2-10 O/U in their last 12. Cleveland has allowed 4 or fewer in 9 of those 12 as well.
The Phillies are 2-5 O/U in their last 7 and have allowed 0 runs to their opponent in 3 of their last 6 games. Philadelphia is 46-53-5 O/U on the season.
Take UNDER 9.5 (-102).
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