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The Chicago Cubs (45-49) take on the St. Louis Cardinals (48-44) Friday in the opener of a 4-game set at Busch Stadium at 8:15 p.m. ET (Apple TV). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Cubs vs. Cardinals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Cards lead 4-1
The Cubs have won 4 in a row, despite losing OF Cody Bellinger to the IL with a broken finger. They swept the Baltimore Orioles in Camden Yards by a combined score of 21-2. They put it on the O’s 8-0 Thursday as their top 3 hitters combined to go 7-for-13 (.538) with 5 RBIs.
The Cards dropped a doubleheader against the Kansas City Royals Wednesday by scores of 6-4 and 8-5. They went with a bullpen game in the nightcap and just couldn’t stop the bleeding despite having 10 hits in the game. OF Alec Burleson is 6-for-16 (.375) with 2 homers and 6 RBIs during a 4-game hitting streak.
Cubs at Cardinals projected starters
RHP Kyle Hendricks vs. RHP Sonny Gray
Hendricks (1-7, 7.53 ERA) makes his 12th start and 17th appearance. He has a 1.58 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 6.7 K/9 through 63 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 2 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 1 K in 7-0 home defeat Saturday against Los Angeles Angels
- June 14 relief outing vs. St. Louis: 4 1/3 IP, 0 R, 2 H, 0 BB, 1 K in 3-0 home loss
- Last 5 starts vs. Cardinals: 3-1, 2.18 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 14 K in 33 IP
Gray (9-5, 3.30 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.04 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 11.2 K/9 through 92 2/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 5 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 7-6 win in 11 innings July 5 at Washington Nationals
- May 26 vs. Cubs: Win, 5 IP, 0 R, 1 H, 2 BB, 8 K in 4-3 home victory
- Last 5 starts vs. Cubs: 1-1, 3.42 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 37 K in 23 2/3 IP
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Cubs at Cardinals odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:57 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Cubs +165 (bet $100 to win $165) | Cardinals -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cubs +1.5 (-120) | Cardinals -1.5 (+100)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Cubs at Cardinals picks and predictions
Prediction
Cardinals 4, Cubs 3
Moneyline
The Cards are massive favorites in this game because they have their ace on the mound and are facing a pitcher with a 7+ ERA. Throw that out the window. If you asked anyone familiar with the Cardinals who they would hate to face in a 1-game playoff, Hendricks won’t be far down the list of candidates. He’s 13-4 with a 2.62 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 27 outings (26 starts) in his career, which spans 172 IP. That’s a full year of dominance over the course of his career.
Gray has also been lit up for 11 runs (8 ER) in his last 2 starts. So there’s no chance I’d consider the Cardinals at 1:2 odds.
I think the Cards find a way to win, but I’m taking CUBS FIRST 5 INNINGS +155.
Run line/Against the spread
No thanks to either side of the RL here. Instead, I love ALEC BURLESON OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI (-150). Lefties are hitting .305 with an .897 OPS against Hendricks this season. Burleson is 2-for-4 lifetime against him.
Over/Under
There are isolated thunderstorms in the area Friday, but they are expected to clear by 1st pitch. That said, the humidity is high on what’s slated to be an 83-degree evening. A light 3-mph breeze is blowing out to left-center.
The Cards are 7-3 O/U in their last 10, and the Cubs are 5-5. The Over is just 2-7-1 in the last 10 meetings between the clubs. However, with the humidity and 2 pitchers that aren’t on top of their game, I’ll take the OVER 8 (-105).
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