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The Washington Nationals (42-50) and New York Mets (45-45) continue their 3-game series Wednesday. First pitch from Citi Field is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Nationals vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Mets lead 6-2
The Mets offense showed up early on Tuesday, scoring the 1st 6 runs on the way to a 7-5 win. SS Francisco Lindor and LF Brandon Nimmo each had 3 RBIs in the game.
The Nationals didn’t score until an 8th-inning 2-run homer by 3B Ildemaro Vargas. But a near collapse by the Mets bullpen kept this game close in the end, with the Nats scoring 3 runs in the top of the 9th. But it wasn’t enough and the Mets (-140) held on as the Over (8.5) hit.
Nationals at Mets projected starters
LHP Patrick Corbin vs. RHP Luis Severino
Corbin (1-8, 5.49 ERA) makes his 19th start. He has a 1.53 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 6.1 K/9 in 100 IP.
- Last start: No decision, 5 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 3 K in 7-6 home loss against St. Louis Cardinals Friday
- 2024 road splits: 1-5, 5.37 ERA (55 1/3 IP, 33 ER), 1.57 WHIP, 5.9 K/9 in 10 starts
- Career vs. Mets: 8-12, 5.01 ERA (160 IP, 89 ER) 1.39 WHIP, 8.0 K/9 in 28 starts, and 1 relief appearance
Severino (5-3, 3.83 ERA) makes his 18th start. He has a 1.20 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 6.7 K/9 in 103 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 7 ER, 9 H, 2 BB, 3 K in 14-2 road loss versus Pittsburgh Pirates Friday
- 2024 home splits: 3-1, 2.82 ERA (54 1/3 IP, 17 ER), 1.19 WHIP, 6.3 K/9 in 9 starts
- Career vs. Nationals: 2-0, 0.61 ERA (14 2/3 IP, 1 ER) 0.68 WHIP, 3.7 K/9 in 2 starts
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Nationals at Mets odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:12 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Nationals +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Mets -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Nationals +1.5 (-115) | Mets -1.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Nationals at Mets picks and predictions
Prediction
Nationals 4, Mets 2
Moneyline
Its been nearly a month since the Mets swept a 3-game series. I think Wednesday’s game has potential for Washington.
Coming off a loss the Nats bounce back to win 53.1% of the time (26-23). Plus as a home favorite, the Mets have the 3rd-worst win percentage at 46.4% (13-15).
I do think it is a safer bet to pick Washington against the spread but will bet a half unit on NATS (+155) to win outright.
Run line/Against the spread
As a road underdog, the Nationals are 25-16 ATS (covering 61% of the time). They are also a top-10 team on the road ATS, covering 58.3% of those games. If you like Washington and need a little insurance, BET NATIONALS +1.5 (-115).
Over/Under
No team has any significant trends on the O/U. The Mets at home are 24-22 to the Under, while on the road the Nats are 23-23-2.
As a home favorite the Mets are 15-13 to the Over. On the other end, the Nats are 20-19-2 to the Under.
Given this, I will PASS.
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