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The Seattle Mariners (49-43) and San Diego Padres (49-45) meet Wednesday to close out a 2-game interleague set in Southern California. The opening pitch at Petco Park is slated for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mariners vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Mariners lead 1-0
Seattle, which had gone just 5-9 across its previous 14 road games, won Tuesday’s series opener 8-3. The Mariners had 5 doubles and 3 HRs in a game they led wire to wire.
San Diego’s setback Tuesday marked its 3rd in a row. After batting .331 with a .530 slugging percentage from July 3-6, the Padres have managed just 8 combined hits over their last 2 games.
Mariners at Padres projected starters
RHP Bryce Miller vs. RHP Michael King
Miller (6-7, 3.84 ERA) is tabbed for his 19th start. He has a 1.08 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 in 103 IP.
- Last outing: No-decision, 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 7-3 win vs. Baltimore Orioles Thursday
- Has never faced the Padres
King (7-5, 3.51 ERA) makes his 19th start. He has a 1.27 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 10.3 K/9 in 105 IP.
- Last outing: Win, 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 3-1 win at Texas Rangers Thursday
- Career vs. Mariners: 0-0, 3.38 ERA (2 2/3 IP, 1 ER), 3 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 2 games
- Has a 2.45 ERA across his last 8 starts
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Mariners at Padres odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:32 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Mariners +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Padres -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mariners +1.5 (-190) | Padres -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Mariners at Padres picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 5, Mariners 4
Moneyline
Seattle is 6-12 in its last 18 games; San Diego is 12-6 in its last 18.
The battle of right-handers makes for an advantage for San Diego. The Friars’ .763 OPS against righties ranks 2nd in MLB. The home team is at a bullpen disadvantage in surface stats, especially of late (4.93 ERA since June 1). But expected-ERA figures based on analytics tell a different story, and its likely San Diego’s relief corps is being slightly underplayed by bettors.
TAKE THE PADRES (+115).
Run line/Against the spread
The juice is loose, and with an lean toward a higher-than-projected score, the run line underdog does not bring back enough return here. STEER CLEAR.
Over/Under
The total has gone Over in 10 of Seattle’s last 13 games on the road and in 10 of the Mariners’ last 11 on the road against San Diego.
The Over has also prevailed in 5 of San Diego’s last 6 games in a dozen straight Friars’ games at Petco.
Miller has been prone to louder contact than one might think looking at his ERA. And both Miller and King are fly-ballers pitching on what figures to be a wind-blowing-out game. Mix in the Padres being on their best platoon side, and an 8-plus has enough value.
TAKE THE OVER 7.5 (-115).
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