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The Cleveland Guardians (51-29) and Kansas City Royals (46-38) play the 3rd contest of a 4-game series Saturday. First pitch from Kauffman Stadium is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Guardians vs. Royals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Royals lead 3-1
Cleveland lost 10-3 Friday in Kansas City, dropping a 3rd consecutive outing. The Guardians will try to avoid a season-high 4-game losing streak Saturday. The offense has dried up lately, plating just 6 runs in the past 3 outings.
The 10 runs allowed on Friday were the most since losing 11-7 at home against the Detroit Tigers May 7. It’s just the 3rd time all season Cleveland pitching has been dinged for a double-digit run total.
The Royals have won 3 in a row, their longest win streak since a season-best 8-game run May 17-25. Pitching has been on point for Kansas City lately, allowing just 8 runs in the past 5 games.
The Over (9.5) cashed Friday, and that was a rarity. The Under is still 8-1-1 in the past 10 games, and 11-3-1 across the past 15 outings dating back to June 13.
Guardians at Royals projected starters
RHP Tanner Bibee vs. LHP Cole Ragans
Bibee (6-2, 3.50 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.12 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 10.9 K/9 in 87 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 1 ER (2 R), 5 H, 1 BB, 7 K in 3-2 victory at Baltimore Orioles Monday
- 2024 road splits: 3-1, 2.66 ERA (44 IP, 13 ER), 1.09 WHIP, .218 opponents’ batting average (OBA), 5 HR, 12 BB, 53 K in 8 starts
- Career vs. Royals: 0-0, 2.70 ERA (10 IP, 3 ER), 1.50 WHIP, 0 HR, 9.9 K/9 in 2 starts
Ragans (5-5, 3.03 ERA) makes his 18th start. He has a 1.15 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 11.0 K/9 in 98 innings.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 11 K in 4-1 home victory vs. Miami Marlins Monday
- 2024 home splits: 4-2, 2.96 ERA (54 2/3 IP, 18 ER), 1.17 WHIP, .216 OBA, 3 HR, 20 BB, 75 K in 10 starts (1 CG)
- Career vs. Guardians: 0-1, 5.40 ERA (5 IP, 3 ER), 1.40 WHIP, 5.4 K/9 in 1 start in 2022
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Guardians at Royals odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:54 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Guardians -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Royals -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians -1.5 (+155) | Royals +1.5 (-190)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Guardians at Royals picks and predictions
Prediction
Guardians 3, Royals 2
Moneyline
The GUARDIANS (-105) are worth a look as short ‘dogs Saturday.
Cleveland hasn’t lost 4 or more games in a row at any point this season, and it enters on a 3-game skid.
The Royals (-115) have outscored the opposition 17-5 in their 3-game winning streak, including 2 victories over the Guardians. Kansas City pitching has allowed just 8 runs in the past 5 outings, so expect this to be a close shave.
Run line/Against the spread
The Royals +1.5 (-190) will cost nearly 2 times the potential return, if you want some insurance can’t bring yourself to take Kansas City straight up despite its recent hot play.
That’s too much risk for not nearly enough reward. If you like the Royals, just bet them straight up.
PASS.
Over/Under
UNDER 8 (-110) is a decent play in this matchup between Bibee and Ragans.
The Under has cashed in 3 in a row for the southpaw Ragans, while going 5-1 across hist past 6 outings. And, again, Kansas City has hit the Under at an 8-1-1 clip in the previous 10 contests.
The total has gone Under in 3 of the past 4 starts for Bibee, while going 8-3 across his past 11 starts.
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