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The Boston Red Sox (43-37) welcome the San Diego Padres (44-41) to Fenway Park Friday for the opener of a 3-game series. First pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. ET (Apple TV+). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Padres vs. Red Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Boston won 2-1 in 2023
The Red Sox, who are 19-21 at home this season, split a 2-game series with the Toronto Blue Jays, closing with a 9-4 home loss on Tuesday. It has been on fire as of late, winning 8 of its last 10 games and is 5-2 in its last 7 at home. The Red Sox are 16-12 against NL teams this season.
The Padres are 20-19 away and are 1 of just 11 teams with a road record over .500. San Diego has won 3 straight games and 7 of its last 8. It is coming off an 8-5 victory Wednesday over the Washington Nationals to complete a 3-game sweep. San Diego is 42-42 against the spread (ATS).
Padres at Red Sox projected starters
RHP Randy Vasquez vs. RHP Nick Pivetta
Vasquez (2-4, 5.10 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 1.68 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 5.9 K/9 in 47 2/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 5 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 3 K in 6-4 home win over the Milwaukee Brewers Saturday
- 2024 road splits: 1-2, 6.85 ERA (22 1/3 IP, 17 ER), 1.88 WHIP, 6 HR, 6.9 K/9 in 5 starts
- Career vs. Red Sox: 0-0, 4.91 ERA (3 2/3 IP, 2 ER), 1. WHIP, 7.4 K/9 in 1 start
Pivetta (4-4, 4.06 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 1.16 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 in 57 2/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 5 K in 4-3 road win over the Cincinnati Reds Saturday
- 2024 home splits: 1-2, 4.62 ERA (25 1/3 IP, 13 ER), 1.26 WHIP, 3 HR, 11.7 K/9 in 5 starts
- Career vs. Padres: 0-3, 5.57 ERA (21 IP, 13 ER), 1.29 WHIP, 14.1 K/9 in 5 appearances (3 starts)
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Padres at Red Sox odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:46 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Padres +134 (bet $100 to win $134) | Red Sox -158 (bet $158 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-154) | Red Sox -1.5 (+128)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
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Padres at Red Sox picks and predictions
Prediction
Red Sox 6, Padres 4
Moneyline
BET RED SOX (-158).
The Red Sox have been on fire as of late and have won 4 straight starts by Pivetta and have won 6 of his last 8 starts. Boston is 5-3 in its last 8 home games and won 2 of 3 in Fenway against the New York Yankees and Philadelphia Phillies among its last 3 home series.
While the Padres have won 7 of their last 8 games, they are just 1-9 in their last 10 road games. San Diego is 3-7 in Vasquez’s starts this season as well. Considering those trends, despite the juice, take RED SOX (-158).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
The Padres have strung together wins as of late, so they should be able to keep this game close. Despite consistently winning when Pivetta starts, Boston has won by a single run in 3 of the team’s 7 victories with him on the mound.
Avoid the moneyline and back the suggested moneyline play.
Over/Under
BET OVER 9.5 (-108).
The Padres have gone Over in 7 straight games and have scored at least 7 runs in 3 straight games. They are 45-38-1 O/U on the season and have gone Over in Vasquez’s last 2 starts.
The Red Sox have gone Over in 3 straight and are 7-3 O/U in their last 10. Boston has scored at least 4 in 9 of its last 10 and at least 7 in 6 of those. Considering those trends, back OVER 9.5 (-108).
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