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The Pittsburgh Pirates (32-35) and St. Louis Cardinals (31-34) face off Thursday in the finale of a 3-game series. First pitch from Busch Stadium is set for 2:15 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Pirates vs. Cardinals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Tied 1-1
St. Louis beat Pittsburgh 4-2 Wednesday while cashing as a -170 home favorite. Cardinals 3B Nolan Arenado doubled in a run to make it 1-0 in the 3rd inning, and St. Louis extended the lead to 3-0 with 2 runs in the 4th. St. Louis has won 2 of its last 3 games.
LHP Bailey Falter was credited with the loss, allowing 3 ER on 8 hits and 1 walk with 5 K’s in 4 IP. Pittsburgh has dropped 2 of its last 3.
Pirates at Cardinals projected starters
RHP Mitch Keller vs. RHP Lance Lynn
Keller (8-3, 3.16 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has a 1.24 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 in 79 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 8 K in 3-0 win over Minnesota Twins Friday
- Career vs. St. Louis: 2-1, 3.29 ERA (54 2/3 IP, 20 ER), 1.26 WHIP, 7.2 K/9 in 10 starts
Lynn (2-3, 3.58 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has a 1.38 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 in 65 1/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 8-5 win vs. Colorado Rockies Friday
- Career vs. Pittsburgh: 7-8, 5.31 ERA (118 2/3 IP, 70 ER), 1.52 WHIP, 8.2 K/9 in 22 starts and 2 relief appearances
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Pirates at Cardinals odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:30 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Pirates -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Cardinals -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Pirates -1.5 (+150) | Cardinals +1.5 (-185)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Pirates at Cardinals picks and predictions
Prediction
Pirates 4, Cardinals 3
Moneyline
LEAN PIRATES (-110).
The Pirates are 7-3 in the last 10 meetings overall and 3-2 in the last 5 in St. Louis. Pittsburgh is also the slightly hotter team overall at 6-4 in its last 10 games, while the Cardinals are only 5-5 in their last 10.
This is a very slight lean, as Pittsburgh is only 1-2 in its last 3 road games, while St. Louis is 2-1 in its last 3 at home.
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
I like the Cardinals to cover here as +1.5 (-185) underdogs, but the line is set too high to risk betting on. Bet on the moneyline and/or O/U instead.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 8.5 (-110).
The Under has hit in 3 straight for St. Louis and is 4-2 in its last 6 home games. For Pittsburgh, the Under is 4-1 in its last 5 games. The Under has also hit in back-to-back Pittsburgh-St. Louis matchups and is 6-4 in the last 10 meetings.
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