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The New York Liberty (9-2) and Connecticut Sun (9-0) meet Saturday in a Commissioner’s Cup game at Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, Conn. Tip-off is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET (ABC). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Liberty vs. Sun odds, and make our expert WNBA picks and predictions.
Season series: First meeting
New York swept last year’s regular-season series 4-0 before dispatching Connecticut 3-1 in a best-of-5 semifinals.
The Liberty have won 5 in a row since stunning back-to-back losses as favorites vs. the Chicago Sky at home May 23 and at the Minnesota Lynx May 25. New York has covered the past 3 games, too, all as a favorite of 6 or more points, while cashing the Under in each of the previous 2 outings.
The Sun are a perfect 9-for-9 in the win column, and lately Connecticut has picked up the pace against the number. After starting out just 1-4 against the spread (ATS), the Sun are 3-1 ATS in the past 4 outings.
Defense has been a huge part of the success, with Connecticut limiting teams to 59 or fewer points in 3 of those outings. The Sun have cashed the Under in 4 consecutive contests.
Sun reserve G Moriah Jefferson (ankle) carries a questionable tag into Saturday’s play. For the Liberty, G Courtney Vandersloot is a question mark due to personal reasons, while reserve F Nyara Sabally is out with a back injury.
Liberty at Sun odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:08 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Liberty -122 (bet $122 to win $100) | Sun +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Liberty -1.5 (-108) | Sun +1.5 (-112)
- Over/Under (O/U): 156.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)
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Liberty at Sun picks and predictions
Prediction
Liberty 78, Sun 76
Moneyline
New York (-122) will cost slightly more on the moneyline than simply laying 1½ points. The difference is rather negligible, but every little bit helps.
PASS and focus on the spread.
Against the spread
NEW YORK -1.5 (-108) is worth a look laying the 1½ points. As mentioned above, the Liberty have dominated the Sun in head-to-head action, winning a playoff series in 4 games last fall after sweeping the regular-season series 4-0.
To be fair, Connecticut did cover 3 times in the 4-game postseason series, but New York was 3-1 ATS in the 4-game regular-season sweep.
In addition, the Liberty enter with 3 consecutive covers, while going 3-1 ATS in the past 4 tries on the road. The Sun have cashed in 3 of the past 4 outings, but they’re just 3-5 ATS in the previous 8 contests.
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Over/Under
UNDER 156.5 (-108) is a solid play in this clash of Eastern Conference titans.
The Sun have cashed Under in 4 straight, limiting the opposition to 59 or fewer points in 3 of the outings.
The Liberty aren’t likely to get locked down like that as they have a tremendous offense. The Sun will likely try to slow the pace of the game down to a crawl, looking to frustrate F Breanna Stewart, G Sabrina Ionescu and Co.. The Under has hit in 2 straight for New York, and 4 of the previous 6 outings.
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