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The Arizona Diamondbacks (30-33) and San Diego Padres (32-34) play the 2nd game of a 4-game set at Petco Park Friday. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET . Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Tied 2-2
Arizona cashed as a slight road underdog (-105) against San Diego with a 4-3 victory Thursday. CF Corbin Carroll delivered 3 hits and scored 2 runs in the win, and RHP Kevin Ginkel picked up his 5th win of the season in relief. While the Diamondbacks pen has been so-so, having allowed the 3rd-most hits (231) in the NL, closer RHP Paul Sewald was able to record his 7th save while lowering his ERA to 0.87 in 10 1/3 IP.
San Diego got into a hole early, as 1B Christian Walker delivered an RBI double off RHP Randy Vasquez in the 1st inning and both 3B Eugenio Suarez and C Gabriel Moreno belted solo HRs in the 2nd. The Padres were able to tie the game in the 5th when C Kyle Higashioka homered, which was followed up by a 2-run RBI double from 1B Jake Cronenworth.
Diamondbacks at Padres projected starters
RHP Brandon Pfaadt vs. RHP Michael King
Pfaadt (2-4, 4.32 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.08 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 in 73 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 8 K in 5-4 win at New York Mets Sunday
- 2024 vs. Padres: 0-1, 4.50 ERA (6 IP, 3 ER), 10 H (season high), 0 BB, 4 K in 1 start, a 13-1 home loss May 4
King (4-4, 3.82 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.08 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 22 2/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 4-3 loss at Kansas City Royals Sunday
- Sports highest HR-to-fly-ball percentage (16.7%) and HR/9 (1.6) in NL among qualified pitchers
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Diamondbacks at Padres odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:22 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Diamondbacks +102 (bet $100 to win $102) | Padres -120 (bet $120 to win $100
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Diamondbacks -1.5 (+160) | Padres +1.5 (-194)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: -114 | U: -106)
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Diamondbacks at Padres picks and predictions
Prediction
San Diego 4, Arizona 3
Moneyline
BET SAN DIEGO (-120).
King surrendered only 1 earned run in 7 innings in his last start against Kansas City, which enters Friday 11 games above .500. The former Yankee has shown the ability to dominate, as he took a no-hit bid into the 7th inning against Milwaukee April 17.
King’s ability to get pitches in the zone for quality strikes has improved. Expect Arizona, which over the last month has the 3rd-highest K% in MLB, to have a difficult time generating much offensively.
Run line
INCLUDE SAN DIEGO +1.5 (-205) IN A PARLAY.
I like pairing the Padres +1.5 (-205) with the Chicago White Sox +1.5 (-178 at home vs. Boston Red Sox, 8:10 p.m. ET). Chicago has lost 14 in a row, but LHP Garrett Crochet is on the mound and the Red Sox lead MLB in K% vs. LHP (28.3%).
Over/Under
PASS.
Pfaadt leads all MLB qualified pitchers in 1st-pitch strike percentage (72.9%) and features a nasty sweeper that rates out as 3rd-best in the Stuff+ metric on Fangraphs. I would lean to the Under, but this number feels right.
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