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The Chicago Cubs (31-32) and Cincinnati Reds (30-33) meet Friday as they continue a 4-game NL Central series. First pitch at Great American Ball Park is slated for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Cubs vs. Reds odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Cincinnati leads 3-1
The Cubs dropped Thursday’s series opener 8-4. Chicago lost 2-0 and 4-3 leads in the contest in seeing its team ERA since May 29 rise to 5.61.
The Reds are back at home after a 4-1 road trip which opened by taking 2 of 3 against these Cubs at Wrigley Field last weekend. Cincinnati is 8-3 with a plus-17 run differential over its last 11 games.
Cubs at Reds projected starters
LHP Justin Steele vs. LHP Nick Lodolo
Steele (0-2, 4.10 ERA) is tabbed for his 8th start. He has a 1.21 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 in 37 1/3 IP.
- Last outing: No-decision, 5 IP, 1 ER, 7 H, 4 BB, 5 K in 7-5 win vs. Cincinnati Reds Sunday
- Career vs. Reds: 2-3, 6.68 ERA (33 2/3 IP, 25 ER), 51 H, 14 BB, 38 K in 9 games (7 starts)
Lodolo (5-2, 3.11 ERA) is making his 9th start. He has a 0.99 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 in 46 1/3 IP.
- Last outing: Win, 6 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 3 K in 5-2 win at Chicago Cubs Sunday
- Career vs. Cubs: 1-1, 4.02 ERA (15 2/3 IP, 7 ER), 16 H, 10 BB, 14 K in 3 starts
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Cubs at Reds odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:07 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Cubs -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Reds -115 (bet $100 to win $115)
- Against the spread (ATS): Cubs -1.5 (+155) | Reds +1.5 (-190)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Cubs at Reds picks and predictions
Prediction
Reds 6, Cubs 4
Moneyline
Cincinnati is 5-2 over the last 7 series meetings. The Cubs are 2-8 across their last 10 road games.
Per ESPN, Reds current batters own an aggregate .904 OPS against Steele. At 4.43 runs per game and 4.19 RPG allowed, Cincy figures to be a better-than-.500 club. Bettors are likely undervaluing the Reds somewhat.
BACK CINCINNATI (-115).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS: Look to the ML for the best leverage in this matchup.
Over/Under
The Over cashed Thursday and is 3-0-1 across the last 4 series meetings.
Cincinnati is at its best against port-siders, and both lineups saw these same hurlers last week. Expect some good swings backed by that familiarity, against both the starters and bullpens.
On a breeze-blowing-out night at a home-run ballpark, TAKE THE OVER 9 (-105).
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