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The Arizona Diamondbacks (29-33) and San Diego Padres (32-33) open a 4-game set Thursday. First pitch from Petco Park is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Padres lead 2-1
The Diamondbacks snapped a 4-game winning streak with a 9-3 loss against the San Francisco Giants Wednesday while failing to cash as +104 home underdogs. RF Pavin Smith hit a solo shot in the 5th inning, and LHP Jordan Montgomery allowed 6 ER in 2 innings to pick up the loss.
The Padres have lost 4 games in a row after falling 3-2 against the Los Angeles Angels Wednesday and failing to cash as -174 road favorites. San Diego announced after the loss that 3B Manny Machado suffered a strained right hip flexor. RF Fernando Tatis Jr. had a 4-hit game for the 7th time in his career, while RHP Dylan Cease allowed 3 ER in 6 innings and picked up the loss.
Diamondbacks at Padres projected starters
RHP Slade Cecconi vs. RHP Randy Vasquez
Cecconi (1-4, 5.59 ERA) makes his 7th start. The rookie has a 1.05 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 6.3 K/9 in 37 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 4 K in 10-5 win at New York Mets Saturday
- 2024 vs. Padres: 0-1, 12.46 ERA (4 1/3 IP, 6 ER), 5 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 1 start, a 7-1 home loss May 3
- Career vs. Padres: 0-1, 9.00 ERA (6 IP, 6 ER), 1.33 WHIP, 7.5 K/9 in 1 start and 1 relief appearance
Vasquez (1-3, 5.74 ERA) makes his 7th start. The rookie has a 1.61 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 6.1 K/9 in 26 2/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 5 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 5 K in 7-3 victory at Kansas City Royals Saturday
- Career vs. Diamondbacks: 0-0, 7.71 ERA (2 1/3 IP, 2 ER), 3 H, 2 BB, 2 K in 1 relief appearance of 7-1 home loss with New York Yankees Sept. 24, 2023
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Diamondbacks at Padres odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:25 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Diamondbacks +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Padres -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Diamondbacks +1.5 (-190) | Padres -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)
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Diamondbacks at Padres picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 4, Diamondbacks 3
Moneyline
BET PADRES (-125).
The Diamondbacks have lost 6 of their last 10 games, including 4 of their last 6 on the road. They have allowed 4 or more runs in 5 of their last 6 games while scoring 4 or fewer in 6 of their last 10.
The Padres have won 3 of their last 4 home games and allowed 2 or fewer runs in 3 of their last 4 at Petco Park. They have also allowed 4 or fewer runs in each of their last 5 games.
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
There is minimal value on the run line.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 8.5 (-120).
The Diamondbacks have held opponents to 4 or fewer runs in 5 of their last 10 games while scoring 4 or fewer in 6 of their last 10. San Diego has hit the Under in 7 of its last 10 games, including each of its last 4. It has scored 3 runs or fewer in each of its last 4 games while allowing 4 or fewer in each of its last 5.
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