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The St. Louis Cardinals (27-27) take on the Philadelphia Phillies (39-18) Friday in the opener of a 3-game set at Citizens Bank Park at 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Cardinals vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Phillies lead 2-1
The Cards are 12-3 over their last 15 games to reach .500 for the 1st time since April 16. They won 5-3 Wednesday against the Cincinnati Reds to take 2 of 3 on the road. RHP Andre Pallante dealt 6 shutout innings after his recall from the minors, and 2B Nolan Gorman hit his 10th HR.
The Phils returned from a 2-4 road trip after a 6-1 victory Wednesday against the San Francisco Giants. DH Kyle Schwarber went 2-for-4 with his 11th HR. He’s hitting .307 with 3 HR and 18 RBIs in 88 at-bats this month.
Cardinals at Phillies projected starters
RHP Miles Mikolas vs. RHP Aaron Nola
Mikolas (3-5, 5.64 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 1.36 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9 in 59 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 6 K Saturday against the Chicago Cubs
- Last 5 regular season starts vs. Phillies: 1-3, 4.31 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 14 K’s in 31 1/3 IP
Nola (6-2, 3.04 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 1.06 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 in 71 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 5 K Saturday against the Colorado Rockies
- Last 5 regular season starts vs. Cardinals: 2-1, 3.52 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 27 K’s in 30 2/3 IP
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Cardinals at Phillies odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:29 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Cardinals +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Phillies -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cardinals +1.5 (-130) | Phillies -1.5 (+105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Cardinals at Phillies picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 4, Cardinals 3
Moneyline
The Phillies have a clear advantage on the mound. In fact, Mikolas is 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA in 4 games (3 starts) at Citizens Bank Park in his career. The Cards just lost 2-hole-hitter OF Lars Nootbaar to the IL with an oblique strain.
But we’re not taking the Phils at -190. Instead, SGP the PHILLIES ML + AARON NOLA OVER 1.5 EARNED RUNS (+195).
Nola has allowed 2+ ER in his last 2 starts, and in 4 of 5 against St. Louis.
Run line/Against the spread
Skip the RL and head straight to KYLE SCHWARBER OVER 1.5 TOTAL BASES (+100). Schwarbs has 2+ total bases in 3 straight and 4 of 5. He’s having a great month, and Mikolas is among the leaders in hits allowed.
Over/Under
The Over is just 3-7 in the last 10 meetings. The Cards are 5-5 O/U, and Philadelphia is 4-6. The Under cashed in the 1st 3 meetings in St. Louis in April. The wind is slated to blow in from left field at 6 mph.
I’ll take the UNDER 8 (-115).
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