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The New York Mets (19-22) and Philadelphia Phillies (30-13) open a 2-game set at Citizens Bank Park Wednesday. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Mets vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Phillies lead 2-0 after a 2-game sweep at Citi Field Monday and Tuesday
The Phillies beat the Mets 5-4 in 10 innings Monday and then again 4-0 Tuesday. They have won 4 of their last 5 games and 11 of their last 13. Philadelphia is 24-19 against the spread (ATS) on the season and sits 1st in the NL East. It is 15-7 straight up at home.
The Mets have lost 2 straight to the Phillies, having come off a series in which they lost 2 of 3 to the Atlanta Braves. New York has lost 4 of its last 5 and 7 of its last 10. It is 20-21 ATS on the season. The Mets are 9-8 straight up on the road.
Mets at Phillies projected starters
LHP Joey Lucchesi vs. LHP Ranger Suarez
Lucchesi makes his season debut. He had a 1.31 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 6.2 K/9 in 46 2/3 innings in 2023.
- 2023 road splits: 2-0, 2.59 ERA (24 1/3 IP, 7 ER), 23 H, 2 HR, 7 BB, 20 K in 5 starts
- Career vs. Phillies: 2-0, 1.29 ERA (14 IP, 2 ER), 0.79 WHIP, 8.4 K/9 in 2 starts and 1 relief appearance — last faced them in 2021
Suarez (7-0, 1.50 ERA) makes his 9th start. He has a 0.72 WHIP, 1.3 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 in 54 innings.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 9 K in 8-2 road win over Miami Marlins Friday
- 2024 home splits: 3-0, 2.08 ERA (26 IP, 6 ER), 12 H, 2 HR, 3 BB, 26 K in 4 starts
- Career vs. Mets: 2-3, 4.03 ERA (30 IP, 6 ER), 0.87 WHIP, 9.3 K/9 in 6 starts and 7 relief appearances, including 1-1 with a 4.05 ERA (13 1/3 IP, 6 ER) in 2 starts last season
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Mets at Phillies odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:10 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Mets +164 (bet $100 to win $164) | Phillies -196 (bet $196 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread: Mets +1.5 (-130) | Phillies -1.5 (+108)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -122 | U: +100)
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Mets at Phillies picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 5, Mets 3
Moneyline
PASS.
The Phillies (-196) are just too pricey to take on the moneyline here. Suarez has been an ace this season, making the Mets as underdogs not worth the value either. Ultimately, pass on this one.
Run line/Against the spread
BET PHILLIES -1.5 (+108).
The Phillies went 2-0 ATS in the 2-game set in Queens, playing as underdogs in the 1st game and then as favorites in the 2nd (a 4-0 win). Philadelphia is 11-11 ATS at Citizens Bank Park and 9-9 ATS as a home favorite. The Phillies have covered in every one of Suarez’s starts.
The Mets are 9-12 ATS following a loss, the 7th-worst team in that situation. New York also has a pitcher on the mound who is making his 1st appearance of the season and could have some rust.
Take PHILLIES -1.5 (+108).
Over/Under
LEAN OVER 7.5 (-122).
Philadelphia has gone Over in Suarez’s last 2 starts and scored a combined 22 runs over that span. It has been on fire offensively as of late, scoring at least 4 runs in 5 straight games. The Phillies have topped the total in 4 of their last 5.
The Mets are 1-1 O/U in this series and 19-22 O/U on the season. The Mets are the best Over-hitting road team in MLB with an 11-6 O/U record. With those trends in mind, take OVER 7.5 (-122).
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