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The Cleveland Guardians (19-9) and Houston Astros (9-19) open a 3-game series Tuesday at Minute Maid Park. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Guardians vs. Astros odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Astros won 4-2 in 2023
The Guardians dropped 2 of 3 games in Atlanta in a battle of 1st-place teams in Atlanta over the weekend. It was a well-pitched series, with the Under cashing in all 3 games. The Guardians offense has produced 4 or fewer runs in 3 in a row, and 5 of the past 6 outings.
The Astros played in the rarefied air of Mexico City against the Colorado Rockies Saturday and Sunday, sweeping a pair of games, while outscoring the Rockies 20-6. However, the totals were sky-high for that set, and the Under is on a 7-0 run in the past 7 games, while cashing at a 10-0-1 pace in the past 11 outings.
Guardians at Astros projected starters
RHP Carlos Carrasco vs. RHP Hunter Brown
Carrasco (1-2, 4.63 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 1.63 WHIP, 5.0 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 in 23 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 5 ER, 9 H (3 HR), 1 BB, 4 K in 8-0 home loss vs. Boston Red Sox last Wednesday
- 2023 road splits: 1-0, 3.95 ERA, 13 2/3 IP, 6 ER, 11 H (0 HR), 7 BB, 14 K with .212 opponents’ batting average (OBA) and 1.32 WHIP in 3 starts
Brown (0-4, 9.68 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 2.49 WHIP, 6.1 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 in 17 2/3 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 4 IP, 3 ER, 4 H (0 HR), 2 BB, 6 K in 6-0 road loss vs. Washington Nationals on April 21
- 2024 home splits: 0-1, 1.80 ERA, 10 IP, 3 R (2 ER), 9 H (1 HR), 5 BB, 8 K with .250 OBA and 1.40 WHIP in 2 starts
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Guardians at Astros odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:55 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Guardians +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Astros -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians +1.5 (-135) | Astros -1.5 (+110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Guardians at Astros picks and predictions
Prediction
Astros 6, Guardians 5
Moneyline
The Astros (-175) are a little pricey given the struggles of Brown this season. He has been much better in his home park, and Carrasco has been mediocre for the Guardians (+145). However, this is way too much to risk for Houston, based on its overall record, and the erratic pitching of its young right-hander.
PASS.
Run line/Against the spread
The GUARDIANS +1.5 (-135) have the best record in the American League, and it is the only team in the AL yet to incur double-digit losses. Cleveland also leads the AL with a plus-46 run differential. It should be able to pile up some runs against Brown and the Astros. Houston is just 4-9 in 13 games at home this season, so Cleveland could continue to add to those woes.
Over/Under
OVER 9 (-110) is worth a look based on the mediocre performances of Brown and Carrasco. We could have batting practice early on in this game, as both pitchers have had their ups and downs.
While the Under has dominated for Houston lately, with the offense struggling, it could be able to get to Cookie early.
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