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The Cleveland Guardians (18-8) and Atlanta Braves (18-6) play the middle contest of a 3-game interleague series Saturday at Truist Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Guardians vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Braves lead 1-0; Atlanta won 6-2 as a heavy favorite (-250) in Friday’s opener as the Under (8.5) hung on
The Guardians have the best winning percentage in the AL at .692, and the Braves have the best record in the majors at 18-6 with a winning percentage of .750.
Cleveland has dropped 2 of the past 3 outings after a 5-game win streak and wins in 8 of the previous 9 contests. The Under cashed on Friday, but the Over had been 5-1-1 in the previous 7 outings.
The Braves have won 4 straight games and 10 of the past 11 outings dating back to April 14. The Under has cashed in each of the past 4 contests, while the total has gone low 8 of the past 10 outings. Atlanta has cashed on the run line in 7 of the past 10 games as a favorite.
Guardians at Braves projected starters
RHP Tanner Bibee vs. RHP Charlie Morton
Bibee (2-0, 4.44 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 1.60 WHIP, 4.4 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in 24 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 5 H (1 HR), 2 BB, 8 K in 6-2 home victory vs. Oakland Athletics Sunday
- 2023 road splits: 1-0, 3.14 ERA (14 1/3 IP, 5 ER), 16 H (2 HR), 7 BB, 16 K, .276 opponents’ batting average (OBA) in 3 starts
Morton (2-0, 4.70 ERA) makes his 5th start. He has a 1.26 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 23 innings.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 5-2 home victory vs. Texas Rangers April 20
- 2024 home splits: 1-0, 4.63 ERA (11 2/3 IP, 6 ER), 9 H (1 HR), 7 BB, 8 K, .214 OBA in 2 starts
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Guardians at Braves odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:55 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Guardians +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Braves -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians +1.5 (-135) | Braves -1.5 (+110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Guardians at Braves picks and predictions
Prediction
Braves 6, Guardians 5
Moneyline
The Braves (-175) will cost you at least 2 times your potential return, which is just a little too much risk for a standalone wager. My personal limit for a straight-up ML play is -175, and even that’s a little risky. As part of a multi-team parlay playing Atlanta straight up is OK.
PASS.
Run line/Against the spread
The GUARDIANS +1.5 (-135) are a decent play catching a run and a half.
Cleveland has fared well on the road this season, going 10-4, although one of those losses did come in the series opener. Bibee has slightly better splits than Morton, so the scales are tipped slightly in Cleveland’s favor as far as the starting pitching is concerned.
Over/Under
OVER 9 (-105) is the lean, but play a half-unit at most.
The Under cashed in Friday’s opener, but the total has gone high at a 5-2-1 clip in the past 8 games for Cleveland.
While Atlanta has cashed the Under in 4 in a row, the Over is 2-2 in 4 interleague home games.
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