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The Philadelphia Phillies (15-9) and Cincinnati Reds (13-10) meet at Great American Ballpark for the 3rd game of a 4-game series Wednesday at 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Reds odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Reds lead 3-2
Philadelphia had a 7-game win streak snapped with an 8-1 setback Tuesday. Before falling flat with a 1-for-9 mark with runners in scoring position Tuesday, the Phillies had posted a Boeing run-scoring average (7.17) while pounding out an .885 OPS over its win streak.
The Reds mustered just 2 hits Monday, but on Tuesday they had 2 home runs among 9 hits in a bounce-back win.
Dating back to last April, Cincinnati has won 5 series meetings, Philadelphia has won 4, and neither side has tallied back-to-back wins.
Phillies at Reds projected starters
RHP Spencer Turnbull vs. LHP Nick Lodolo
Turnbull (2-0, 1.23 ERA) makes his 5th start. He has a 0.77 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 in 22 innings.
- Last outing: Win, 7 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 7-0 victory vs. Chicago White Sox Friday
- Career vs. Reds: 2-0, 1.69 ERA (16 IP, 3 ER), 9 H, 5 BB, 21 K in 3 starts
- Owns a 4.33 ERA over 65 career games
Lodolo (2-0, 0.75 ERA) is tabbed for his 3rd start. He has logged a 0.75 WHIP, 0.8 BB/9 and 12.0 K/9 in 12 innings.
- Last outing: Win, 6 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 7 H, 0 BB, 6 K in 7-1 victory vs. Los Angeles Angels Friday
- Career vs. Phillies: 1-0, 2.22 ERA (24 1/3 IP, 6 ER), 19 H, 8 BB, 31 K in 4 starts
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Phillies at Reds odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:05 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Phillies -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Reds -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+155) | Reds +1.5 (-190)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Phillies at Reds picks and predictions
Prediction
Reds 5, Phillies 4
Moneyline
The Phils have played a relatively weak slate so far and are a half-a-fade lean heading into this and other games in the near future because they will undoubtably be overvalued by bettors.
What the Reds add to the equation isn’t much. Consider CINCINNATI (-110) as a lean but just a sliver of one at that.
Run line/Against the spread
PASS: better leverage can be found on the ML.
Over/Under
The Under cashed Monday with the Reds offering no help in a 7-0 contest. But the Over bounced back Tuesday and is 6-2 across the last 8 Philly-Cincy games.
Both starters in this matchup have some injury history, and they have suspect early-season numbers.
BACK THE OVER 8.5 (-110).
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