The Texas Longhorns are 11-1 with a 10-point road win over Alabama, yet they somehow find themselves on the outside looking in at the College Football Playoff field.
The current scenario is as absurd as it sounds, but not any less real. Texas could be left out of the College Football Playoff with a 12-1 record, college football’s best win and a conference title. They simply picked the worst season to go 12-1.
Standing between Texas and a playoff spot are four undefeated Power Five leaders in Georgia, Michigan, Washington and Florida State. If all four hold serve, Texas will likely watch the College Football Playoff from home.
So how does the team get into the playoff field?
We feel solidly that Michigan will not lose to Iowa, so you can pencil them into the playoff. Washington faces an Oregon squad that currently ranks ahead of Texas, so a Washington loss doesn’t help Texas out all that much. The Pac-12 is likely in the playoff.
That leaves Georgia and Florida State as the only two reasonable playoff spots that Texas could take. Georgia faces an Alabama team that Texas beat by 10 points on the road. Georgia does not belong in the playoff if they lose to Alabama in the SEC championship, but a loss by the Bulldogs would not guarantee the Longhorns would get in over either SEC squad.
The most straightforward path to the playoff is this: Texas beats Oklahoma State and Florida State loses to Louisville.
Florida State is in real danger of losing with its backup quarterback. It came close last week against Florida in a 24-15 win. Nevertheless, Texas will have to sweat it out until the end of Saturday’s games.
The Longhorns will look to win a Big 12 championship against Oklahoma State at 11 a.m. CT on ABC.