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The Philadelphia Phillies and Arizona Diamondbacks take their NL Championship Series into Game 4 on Friday. First pitch at Chase Field is slated for 8:07 p.m. ET (TBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Diamondbacks odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Series: Phillies lead 2-1
Philadelphia had its 2-0 lead halved in a 2-1 loss in Thursday’s Game 3 in Phoenix. A Phillies club that had banged out a remarkable 24 extra-base hits over its previous 4 games was held to just 1 double amid 3 hits Thursday.
Arizona got masterful pitching from rookie RHP Brandon Pfaadt and 4 relievers Thursday. The Diamondbacks are now 17-7 over their last 24 games at home.
Phillies at Diamondbacks projected starters
LHP Christopher Sanchez vs. RHP Joe Mantiply
Sanchez went 3-5 with a 3.44 ERA across 18 regular-season starts. He logged a 1.05 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 in 99 1/3 innings.
- Last pitched on Sept. 30 in a 1-inning relief appearance; Friday’s NLCS turn will mark his 1st start since Sept. 24
- 2023 road stats: 1-0, 2.08 ERA in 26 IP across 5 starts and 1 relief appearance
- Has not faced the Diamondbacks as a starter
- Has not pitched in the postseason
Mantiply went 2-2 with a 4.62 ERA across 3 regular-season starts and 32 relief appearances. He logged a 1.13 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 6.5 K/9 in 39 innings.
- Figures to be utilized in an opener role; RHP Slade Cecconi is a possible bulk hurler to be used behind Mantiply (Cecconi registered a 4.33 ERA in 27 IP in MLB in 2023; he also made 23 starts at Triple-A (6.11 ERA)
- Postseason: 3 IP, 3H, 3R, 3 BB, 2 K, all this October
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Phillies at Diamondbacks odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines updated at 8:54 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Phillies -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Diamondbacks +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+125) | Diamondbacks +1.5 (-150)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Phillies at Diamondbacks picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 6, Diamondbacks 4
Moneyline
The Phillies are the better club, and they have a lot of momentum still. But Sanchez on the mound does not represent a best foot — or good enough foot — forward.
This contest very likely gets mostly resolved in the middle innings, amongst middle relievers and several arms either yet to throw this October or mostly untested this month. That all muddies the water plenty.
PASS.
Run line/Against the spread
PASS … but with the caveat that there is a slight lean on the Phillies -1.5 (+125). If Philly bats can take over a loose game, the run line pricing looks best. Some bettors may want to consider the Philadelphia side if the price goes up at all.
Over/Under
In the regular season, Sanchez pitched with the benefit of a .273 batting average on balls in play. In high-leverage situations, he carried a .231 BABIP. Peg his season ERA as being lighter than it should be, and he’s appearing in the postseason for the 1st time. The Phillies port-sider was also dominant against lefty batters, holding them to a regular-season OPS of .401. He’ll see a heavy dose from the right side on Friday.
Nothing produces in the postseason like power, and the Phillies have managed 2 doubles and 19 home runs across 9 playoff games. A bullpen game can sometimes be an effective way to go. And D’backs relievers have fared well over the last 2 months. But that same bullpen carded a 5.80 ERA in July-August.
Peg both bullpens as being out too far over their skis with their October performances to date
BACK THE OVER 9.5 (-105). This is an attractive price, and you may have to move quick.
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