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The Philadelphia Phillies and Arizona Diamondbacks take their NL Championship Series west for Game 3 on Thursday in Phoenix. First pitch at Chase Field is slated for 5:07 p.m. ET (TBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Diamondbacks odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Series: Phillies lead 2-0
Philadelphia has prevailed by scores of 5-3 and 10-0 in this series and have won their last 4 games, all at home. Since the last day of the regular season, the Phils are 8-1.
Arizona returns to the desert, where this season — regular plus post — the club is 44-38. The Diamondbacks are 16-7 over their last 23 games at home.
Phillies at Diamondbacks projected starters
LHP Ranger Suarez vs. RHP Brandon Pfaadt
Suarez went 4-6 with a 4.18 ERA across 22 regular-season starts. He logged a 1.42 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 125 innings.
- Last start: Win, 5 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 2 K in 3-1 win vs. Atlanta Braves last Thursday
- 2023 road stats: 3-3, 2.75 ERA in 59 IP across 10 starts
- Last 5 starts vs. Diamondbacks: 1-1, 3.55 ERA in 25 1/3 IP (2021-23)
- Postseason: 1.16 ERA in 23 IP (2022-23)
Pfaadt went 3-9 with a 5.72 ERA across 18 regular-season starts. He logged a 1.41 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 in 96 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 1/3 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K in 4-2 win vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Oct. 11
- 2023 home stats: 2-5, 6.46 ERA in 46 IP across 10 starts
- Has never faced the Phillies as a starter
- Postseason: 3.86 ERA in 7 IP, all this October
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Phillies at Diamondbacks odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines updated Wednesday at 7:07 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Phillies -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Diamondbacks +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+125) | Diamondbacks +1.5 (-150)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Phillies at Diamondbacks picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 4, Diamondbacks 3
Moneyline
The Phillies are the better club, and they are on a roll. Suarez — who has been terrific in the postseason the last 2 years — puts the Diamondbacks on the weakest side of their platoon splits (.710 OPS vs. lefty pitching curing the regular season).
The starting match-up looks to be one ready to hand the ball off in the middle innings, so the bullpens loom large here as well.
BACK THE PHILLIES (-135).
Run line/Against the spread
The Phillies have tussled in a lot of 1-run games this season (53), and the low side of this total is the lean. PASS on getting the visitors by with the cushion.
Over/Under
The Over is 6-2-2 across the last 10 meetings Arizona games have cashed on the Under in 50 of the team’s last 89 games (+12.40 units, 13% ROI).
In the regular season, Suarez pitched in and around a .327 batting average on balls in play. On the road, that figure was .335. In inning lead-off situations, its was .333. In all high-leverage situations, he carried a .313 BABIP. Peg his season ERA as being more bloated than it should be.
Pfaadt worked around a .316 BABIP in the regular season. His iffy home line was accompanied by a .374 BABIP. Inning leadoff situations saw him hurt by a .418 BABIP. When runners were in scoring position, he was dinged by a .357 BABIP. He, too, deserved a better fate.
BACK THE UNDER 9 (-105). Consider a partial-unity play at the current price and a fully vested play at +100 or better.
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