[gambcom-standard rankid=”3011″ ]
The Arizona Diamondbacks and Los Angeles Dodgers meet Saturday as they swing into their best-of-5 NL Division Series. First pitch under the lights at Dodger Stadium is slated for 9:20 p.m. ET (TBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Dodgers won 8-5
Arizona went 84-78 in the regular season, finishing 16 games behind Los Angeles in the NL West standings but earning an NL Wild Card berth. The Diamondbacks banged out 4 home runs in sweeping the Milwaukee Brewers 2-0 in their best-of-3 Wild Card set during the week.
The Dodgers went 100-62 during the regular season. They outscored the Diamondbacks 72-47 over 13 regular-season contests. Dating back to Aug. 8, Los Angeles has won 5 in a row against the Snakes.
Diamondbacks at Dodgers projected starters
RHP Merrill Kelly vs. LHP Clayton Kershaw
Kelly went 12-8 with a 3.29 ERA in 30 starts during the regular season. He has registered a 1.19 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 in 177 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 7 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 5 K in 1-0 home loss vs. Houston Astros last Saturday
- 2023 road stats: 7-3, 4.07 ERA in 84 IP
- Last 5 starts vs. Dodgers: 0-3, 4.78 ERA in 26 1/3 IP
- Has not pitched in the postseason before
Kershaw went 13-5 with a 2.46 ERA in 24 regular-season starts. He notched a 1.06 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 across 131 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 5 1/3 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 5 K in 2-1 loss at San Francisco Giants last Saturday
- 2023 home stats: 7-1, 1.58 ERA in 57 IP
- Last 5 starts vs. Diamondbacks: 4-1, 2.10 ERA in 30 IP
- Postseason: 13-12, 4.22 ERA in 194 IP (2008-22)
Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!
Diamondbacks at Dodgers odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines updated at 7:38 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Diamondbacks +165 (bet $100 to win $165) | Dodgers -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Diamondbacks +1.5 (-125) | Dodgers -1.5 (+105)
Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -110 | U: -110)
[gambcom-standard rankid=”3012″ ]
Diamondbacks at Dodgers picks and predictions
Prediction
Dodgers 6, Diamondbacks 3
Moneyline
The Dodgers underperformed in 1-run games during the season (16-15), and they figure to be a tad better than what shows in their overall record. Some of that is due to a small sample size: the Dodgers play many more games where they have a commanding lead. L.A. went 45-19 in games decided by 5-plus runs.
That type of cushion is the better play in this opening game which has an Over lean.
PASS.
Run line/Against the spread
According to ESPN.com, current Los Angeles bats own a robust .882 OPS against Kelly, who had a couple shaky starts down the stretch. One of those — 5 IP at the Dodgers Aug. 29 — saw the Arizona righty yield 7 runs on 12 hits.
The Arizona offense is better against right-handed pitching. They clocked a .710 OPS during the regular season against southpaws.
The last 4 Arizona-Los Angeles games have been Dodger victories by an average margin of 5.0 runs.
BACK THE DODGERS -1.5 (+105).
Over/Under
Both starters had some kind peripheral rates during the season (batting average on balls in play, for example: Kershaw .250, Kelly .278). Both have also had favorable clutch numbers. especially with runners in scoring position.
Both bullpens have been terrific over recent weeks. But again, they too have filed some surface numbers that put them too far out over their skis.
Add to that some loud contact allowed in recent starts for Kershaw and likely some solid scoring conditions at Dodger Stadium.
TAKE THE OVER 8 (-110).
[gambcom-standard rankid=”5″ ]
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.
Additional MLB coverage:
BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]