College football is weird this season. It’s always weird in the fun, hilarious and totally absurd ways.
But when it comes to the College Football Playoff and projecting which teams will make the cut, it feels like there are more potential foursome combinations than usual as we approach the midway point in the regular season. Nothing feels like a sure thing.
Going into last week’s games, there were seven teams with at least a 30 percent chance to make the College Football Playoff, per ESPN’s Playoff Predictor algorithm.
Going into Saturday’s Week 6 games, there are only six. And there’s a new group of four at the top with the best playoff chances.
Ohio State is still at the top with a 54.4 percent chance to make the playoff, which is down slightly from last week’s 60.3 percent. But the Buckeyes were off last week, so that dip is more about what else is happening in college football.
Oklahoma and Texas are still right there with Ohio State, but for the first time this season, Georgia is not among the Playoff Predictor’s top-4 teams with the best shots at the playoff. Oregon swooped in and replaced the defending national champions — who struggled to put away a dysfunctional Auburn team in Week 5 — but the Bulldogs still aren’t far behind.
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The Playoff Predictor utilizes an algorithm that factors in the same considerations as the selection committee, such as strength of record, number of losses and conference championships (or independent status), along with the Football Power Index.
Here’s a look at the top teams with the best chances to make the College Football Playoff, along with their chances of advancing to the title game and winning it all, per ESPN’s Playoff Predictor, as of Thursday.