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The Houston Astros (86-72) and Seattle Mariners (85-72) meet for the Wednesday finale of a key 3-game AL West series. First pitch at T-Mobile Park is slated for 9:40 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Astros vs. Mariners odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Mariners lead 9-3
Houston took the series opener 5-1 and then dropped a 6-2 decision Tuesday. The Astros are just 1-4 over their last 5 games and 2-6 across their last 8.
Seattle had won 4 straight games against Houston before Monday’s setback. In winning 9-of-12 from the Astros so far, the Mariners have won a season series against Houston for the 1st time since 2018.
The Astros head into Wednesday 2 1/2 games behind the Texas Rangers in the race for the AL West flag and a half-game ahead of Seattle for the final AL Wild Card berth.
Astros at Mariners projected starters
LHP Framber Valdez vs. RHP Bryce Miller
Valdez (12-11, 3.39 ERA) is tabbed for his 31st start of the season. He has a 1.10 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 through 194 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 5 1/3 IP, 4 H, 7 R (6 ER), 3 BB, 10 K in 7-5 home loss vs. Kansas City Royals Friday
- 2023 road stats: 8-3, 3.42 ERA in 92 IP across 14 starts
- Last 5 starts vs. Mariners: 1-1, 3.98 ERA in 31 2/3 IP (2021-23)
Miller (8-6, 4.17 ERA) makes his 25th start. He owns a 1.12 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 8.1 K/9 through 127 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 8 H, 3 R, 0 BB, 3 K in 8-5 loss at Texas Rangers Friday
- 2023 Home stats: 5-2, 3.34 ERA in 70 IP across 13 starts
- Career starts vs. Astros: 2-0, 0.00 ERA in 12 1/3 IP in 2 starts (2023)
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Astros at Mariners odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:42 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Astros -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Mariners +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
- Against the spread (ATS): Astros -1.5 (+135) | Mariners +1.5 (-160)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Astros at Mariners picks and predictions
Prediction
Astros 5, Mariners 4
Moneyline
The Astros lineup went just 2-for-13 with runners in scoring position Tuesday, and clutch failures like that one are frequent in the club’s recent losses.
The 2 starters in this meeting have just some slight fade in their analytics. but Miller carries a bit more due to perhaps a bit more luck despite some unattractive barrel rates. Add in a bit of a recent slide for the Seattle bullpen, a unit likely more fatigued at the back end than its counterparts in this game.
Houston is 5-1 in its last 6 season finales. BACK THE ASTROS (-125).
Run line/Against the spread
Peg the Astros as a lean here. In a game with an Over lean, consider a line watch: back the Astros -1.5 at +140 or better. AVOID otherwise.
Over/Under
The Over was a losing lean Monday. Tuesday’s game was a no-lean push. The lean is back on the Over for the finale. But PASS unless you find a better price on the Over 8.
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