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In a 3-round welterweight bout on the main card, Kevin Holland and Jack Della Maddalena meet at Noche UFC — also known as UFC Fight Night 227 and UFC on ESPN+ 85 — on Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook‘s lines around the Noche UFC: Holland vs. Della Maddalena odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
Records: Holland (25-9-0) | Della Maddalena (15-2-0)
The prelims can be viewed on ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET and the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Holland posted a 1st-round submission against Michael Chiesa last time out at UFC 291 in July, and that came on the heels of a 3rd-round KO/TKO win over Santiago Ponzinibbio at UFC 287 in April. This is his 3rd fight in 2023.
Each of Holland’s past 6 fights has finished inside the distance, as he is 2-1 by way of submission and 2-1 via KO/TKO. The last time he went the distance was a pair of consecutive unanimous-decision losses to Marvin Vettori and Derek Brunson in the spring of 2021.
Della Maddalena is unbeaten at the UFC level, going 5-0 since making his debut at UFC 270 in Jan. 2022. He had a split-decision win last time out against Bassil Hafez in July, which was the first time he went the distance after going 3-0 with 3 straight 1st-round KO/TKO victories and a 1st-round submission at UFC 284 against Randy Brown in February.
Holland stands 4 inches taller than Della Maddalena and has an amazing 8-inch reach advantage. However, the Aussie Della Maddalena holds an impressive 7.27-to-4.11 significant strikes landed per minute edge despite that Holland is slightly more accurate at 64.84% of his strikes compared to just 57.53% for Della Maddalena.
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Noche UFC: Holland vs. Della Maddalena odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:42 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Holland +124 (bet $100 to win $124) | Della Maddalena -146 (bet $146 to win $100)
- Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over +110 | Under -140)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +140 | No -182)
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Noche UFC: Holland vs. Della Maddalena picks and predictions
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
HOLLAND (+124) is a solid play at plus money as the slight underdog. Della Maddalena has yet to taste defeat at the UFC level, and he hasn’t suffered a setback since beginning his pro career with back-to-back losses at EMMA: Eternal MMA 15 and 117 back in the spring of 2016.
While Della Maddalena is a perfect 5-0 in his UFC career and has rattled off 15 straight professional victories overall, facing Holland is difficult. The American fighter has a tremendous reach advantage and will be able to keep Della Maddalena at a distance, picking and choosing his spots to get close while dictating the pace.
Over/Under (O/U)
No (-182): Will the fight go the distance? is a little too expensive, so avoid playing that prop.
However, playing a 2-round block is a good idea. ROUND BETTING: HOLLAND TO WIN IN ROUND 2 (+1000) and HOLLAND TO WIN IN ROUND 3 (+1600) are worth a roll of the dice. Yes, you’ll lose at least one end, even if he can get the finish in one of the 2 rounds, but you will be very well ahead.
If you don’t want to declare a winner but still want a solid value, take HOW FIGHT WILL END: KO/TKO (+100) at even money.
Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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