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The Arizona Diamondbacks (69-63) and Los Angeles Dodgers (81-49) play the 2nd game of a 3-game set Tuesday at Dodger Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Dodgers lead 6-5
The Diamondbacks lost 7-4 as +134 underdogs in the series opener Monday. Arizona holds a half-game lead over the San Francisco Giants for the final NL Wild Card spot.
The Dodgers hit 4 HRs in Monday’s win, including back-to-back homers from RF Jason Heyward and CF James Outman in the 6th inning. The Dodgers have won 22 of 26 outings this month and have increased their lead in the NL West over the 2nd-place Diamondbacks to 13 games.
Diamondbacks at Dodgers projected starters
RHP Merrill Kelly vs. LHP Clayton Kershaw
Kelly (10-5, 2.97 ERA) makes his 24th start. He has a 1.13 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in 136 1/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 7 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 0 BB, 12 K in 3-2 home victory vs. Cincinnati Reds Thursday
- 2023 road stats: 7-1, 2.98 ERA (63 1/3 IP, 21 ER) in 11 starts
- 2023 vs. Dodgers: 0-1, 1.17 ERA (15 1/3 IP, 2 ER) in 3 starts — Most recent: No-decision, 6 IP, 0 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 2 K in 2-0 home loss Aug. 9
- Career vs. Dodgers: 0-10, 5.03 ERA (78 2/3 IP, 44 ER) in 15 starts
Kershaw (11-4, 2.52 ERA) makes his 20th start. He has a 1.02 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in 107 1/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 2 IP, 1 ER, 1 H, 0 BB, 4 K in 6-1 victory at Cleveland Guardians Wednesday
- 2023 home stats: 5-1, 1.72 ERA (47 IP, 9 ER) in 8 starts
- 2023 vs. Diamondbacks: 1-1, 3.75 ERA (12 IP, 5 ER) in 2 starts — Most recent: Loss, 6 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 6-3 road loss April 7
- Career vs. Diamondbacks (regular season): 21-12, 2.75 ERA (262 IP, 80 ER) in 43 starts
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Diamondbacks at Dodgers odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:24 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Diamondbacks +150 (bet $100 to win $150) | Dodgers -185 (bet $185 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Diamondbacks +1.5 (-135) | Dodgers -1.5 (+110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Dodgers at Diamondbacks picks and predictions
Prediction
Dodgers 4, Diamondbacks 3
Moneyline
The Dodgers (-185) should win for the 23rd time in 27 games in August, but they’re being slightly overvalued on the moneyline.
PASS. Bet the run line and/or the total instead.
Run line/Against the spread
Kelly has been dominant vs. the Dodgers this season, despite having an 0-10 record vs. them in his career. While I know Kelly is capable of recording a win vs. the Dodgers, it’s more likely that he just keeps this game close enough for Arizona to cover the run line.
The Diamondbacks are 24-16 on the run line this season as road underdogs and should bounce back after getting blown out in the series opener.
BET DIAMONDBACKS +1.5 (-135).
Over/Under
It’s tough to bet the Under when the Dodgers play since the Over has hit at a 60.2% rate (74-49-7) in their games this season. However, each game that Kelly has started vs. the Dodgers this season has stayed under 7.5 total runs, and Kershaw has gone 8 straight starts without allowing 3 or more earned runs.
LEAN UNDER 7.5 (-105).
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