The Houston Astros (69-52) and Miami Marlins (63-58) close out a 3-game set at loanDepot park Wednesday. First pitch is at 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Astros vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: tied 1-1
These teams split the first 2 games of the series with Houston earning a rubber match with a 6-5 victory Tuesday after Miami took Monday’s series opener 5-1. The Astros are 6-4 over the last 10 games. They sit 3 1/2 games back in the AL West and are up 2 games on the Toronto Blue Jays for the 2nd AL Wild Card.
Tuesday’s loss snapped a 3-game win streak for Miami, but the Fish have won 4 of 6. This stretch has turned around a rough patch that led to an 11-19 record over the last 30 games. The Marlins are 1 game ahead of the Chicago Cubs for the final NL Wild Card spot.
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Astros at Marlins projected starters
RHP Justin Verlander vs. LHP Jesus Luzardo
Verlander (7-6, 3.19 ERA) makes his 19th start. He has a 1.15 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 in 107 1/3 innings with the New York Mets and Astros.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 7 K Friday against Los Angeles Angels
- Last start vs. Marlins: Win, 7 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 5 K June 12, 2022
Luzardo (8-7, 3.91 ERA) makes his 25th start. He has a 1.24 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 10.6 K/9 in 133 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 3 1/3 IP, 7 ER, 9 H, 1 BB, 2 K Friday against New York Yankees
- 3 career starts vs. Astros: 1-1, 4.58 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 20 K in 17 2/3
Astros at Marlins odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:42 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Astros -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Marlins +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros -1.5 (+135) | Marlins +1.5 (-160)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
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Astros at Marlins picks and predictions
Prediction
Astros 5, Marlins 3
Moneyline
Verlander has been good over his last 7 starts with a 2.49 ERA. He has faced the Marlins 3 times in his career and only 1 of those starts came within the last 7 years. He’s 1-0 with a 1.42 ERA in those 3 starts. I like the Astros in the series finale, and they’re at a solid price.
Take the ASTROS (-135).
Run line/Against the spread
The Marlins have played the Astros tough in this series, but they have a big advantage on the rubber. Luzardo has allowed 15 ER in 13 1/3 IP over his last 3 starts. Houston’s offense is inconsistent, but they’re 22-14 against lefties. The Astros are also 34-27 ATS on the road.
Take the ASTROS -1.5 (+135).
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Over/Under
Houston is 6-4 O/U over the last 10, and Miami is 3-7. Luzardo has pitched to 3 Overs in his last 5 starts. For as good as Verlander has been of late, his stuff is diminishing. The Over is 6-4 in the last 10 meetings between the teams. I think it sneaks Over Wednesday.
LEAN OVER 7.5 (-120).
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