The Miami Marlins (58-56) and Cincinnati Reds (60-55) square off Tuesday in the 2nd game of a 3-game set. First pitch from Great American Ball Park is set for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Marlins vs. Reds odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Reds lead 3-1 after a 5-2 victory Monday
The Marlins are still in the thick of the NL Wild Card race but haven’t helped their chances with their recent play. Miami has dropped its last 5 games and 7 of its last 8 to fall 1 1/2 games behind the Reds for the final playoff berth.
However, the Reds have been scuffling lately as well, and they have allowed Milwaukee to push past them in the NL Central. Cincinnati had lost 6 games in a row prior to Monday’s win.
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Marlins at Reds projected starters
LHP Braxton Garrett vs. RHP Luke Weaver
Garrett (5-3, 4.14 ERA) makes his 22nd start and 23rd appearance. He has a 1.20 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 through 111 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 9-8 win vs. Philadelphia Phillies Wednesday
- 2023 road stats: 3-1, 2.65 ERA and 9.5 K/9 in 51 IP across 10 starts
- Career vs. Reds: 0-2, 4.60 ERA (15 2/3 IP, 8 ER) with a 15.5 K/9 in 3 starts
Weaver (2-4, 6.98 ERA) makes his 20th start. He has a 1.64 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 through 89 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 3 IP, 4 ER, 4 BB, 5 K in 5-3 road loss vs. Chicago Cubs Thursday
- 2023 home stats: 1-0, 8.25 ERA, and 12 HR allowed in 36 IP (3.0 HR/9) spanning 8 starts
- Career vs. Marlins: 1-2, 3.28 ERA, 9.1 K/9 in 24 2/3 IP over 4 starts and 2 relief appearances
Marlins at Reds odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:57 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Marlins -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Reds +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins -1.5 (+120) | Reds +1.5 (-145)
- Over/Under (O/U): 10.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Marlins at Reds picks and predictions
Prediction
Marlins 7, Reds 4
Moneyline
The Reds are 11-8 this season when Weaver has started but he deserves no credit for the winning record as he’s been one of the worst pitchers in the game. He has really been getting roughed up in his hitter-friendly home park and Garrett is clearly the better pitcher in this matchup.
BET MARLINS (-135).
Run line/Against the spread
The Miami bats have been pretty quiet lately, scoring 2 runs or fewer in 6 of their last 8 contests. They should wake up against Weaver but sticking with the moneyline makes sense here.
PASS, but if you do make a play, consider bumping it up to MARLINS -2.5 (+180), in case Weaver really blows up again.
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Over/Under
Weaver has registered an unsightly 8.54 ERA with 30/23 K/BB over 45 1/3 IP across his last 11 starts. Garrett has recorded a 6.08 ERA over his last 5 starts, though the skills — which include 24 K and 4 BB in 23 1/3 IP — have been solid, and a .361 BABIP has played a large role in the struggles.
Garrett is unlikely to completely shut down the Cincinnati offense and it’s really tough to play the Under anytime Weaver is on the mound at Great American Ball Park. Look for this total to push just OVER 10.5 (-115).
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