The Texas Rangers (60-43) and San Diego Padres (49-54) begin a 3-game series in San Diego on Friday. First pitch at Petco Park is slated for 9:40 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Rangers vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Padres won all 3 games in 2021
The Rangers have lost 4 of their last 6 games allowing over 8 runs per game over that stretch. Texas is 15-14 during interleague play this season. The Rangers lead the AL West by 2 games.
San Diego returns home after losing 2 of 3 games to the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Padres have lost 3 of its last 4 games and are 5-5 in the last 10. San Diego is in the bottom 10 of the MLB in runs scored at home and are 26-25 at Petco Park on the season.
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Rangers at Padres projected starters
RHP Dane Dunning vs. RHP Joe Musgrove
Dunning (8-3, 3.18 ERA) will make his 15th start and 23rd appearance. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 5.6 K/9 in 102 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 3 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 1 K in a 16-3 loss at the Los Angeles Dodgers Saturday
- Has never started against the Padres
- 2023 away splits: 3-2, 2.79 ERA (48 1/3 IP, 15 ER), .240 OBA in 11 games.
Musgrove (9-3, 3.25 ERA) will make his 17th start. He has a 1.15 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 in 91 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 6 K in a 3-1 loss at the Detroit Tigers Sunday
- Last start vs Rangers: Win, 9 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 0 BB, 10 K in a 3-0 road victory on April 9, 2021
- 2023 home splits: 5-1, 3.40 ERA (50 1/3 IP, 19 ER), .230 OBA in 9 starts
Rangers at Padres odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:04 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Rangers +152 (bet $100 to win $152) | Padres -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Rangers +1.5 (-132) | Padres -1.5 (+110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Rangers at Padres picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 4, Rangers 3
Moneyline
AVOID.
This is a pretty even matchup and I don’t see a clear advantage either way. Both teams are struggling coming into this game, but both pitchers are having good seasons. If you’d like to take a shot on the Rangers with the plus odds, I’m not going to fault you. Personally, I’ll avoid this bet and look toward the total.
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
I’m going to pass on these bets for the same reasons as above. I don’t love the odds either way and I like the total better.
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Over/Under
BET UNDER 8 (-105).
Dunning has an under 3.50 ERA on the road and Musgrove has an under 3.50 ERA at Petco Park on the season. Musgrove has not allowed more than 3 ER in a game in his last 10 starts. This game will stay under 8 runs with 2 quality pitchers starting.
Also, the Padres have been Under this total in 3 of their last 4 games.
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