The Atlanta Braves (64-35) and Boston Red Sox (54-47) will square off for the 4th and final time this season on Wednesday night, with 1st pitch from Fenway Park scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Braves vs. Red Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Red Sox lead 2-1
The Braves hold a commanding 11-game lead in the NL East despite going just 3-6 in their last 9 games. They rank 3rd in MLB with 551 runs scored and are 5th with a team ERA of 3.81.
The Red Sox are riding a 3-game winning streak and currently sit in 4th place in the AL East, 8 games back of the Baltimore Orioles. They’ve won 14 of their last 19 games, making them one of the hottest teams in the league.
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Braves at Red Sox projected starters
RHP Spencer Strider vs. RHP Brayan Bello
Strider (11-3, 3.78 ERA) makes his 21st start. He has a 1.09 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 14.6 K/9 in 116 2/3 innings.
- Strider leads the majors with 189 K’s
- He’s struck out at least 9 batters in each of his last 6 starts
- Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 4 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 13 K’s against the Arizona Diamondbacks on Thursday
Bello (7-6, 3.60 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.22 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 in 90 innings.
- After allowing 3 or fewer runs in 14 straight starts, he gave up 6 ER in 4 IP against the Oakland Athletics last Wednesday
- Red Sox are 5-2 in his last 7 starts
Braves at Red Sox odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:11 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Braves -165 (bet $165 to win $100) | Red Sox +135 (bet $100 to win $135)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves -1.5 (-105) | Red Sox +1.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Braves at Red Sox picks and predictions
Prediction
Braves 5, Red Sox 3
Moneyline
The Braves are an impressive 9-1 in Strider’s last 10 starts, a stretch that includes 3 wins when he allowed 4 or more runs. This lineup has proved it can overcome the rare poor start by Strider.
On the flip side, Bello struggled in his last start, allowing 6 ER and 3 HRs against the A’s. I like the Braves to win this game, but I’d rather bet the spread. PASS.
Run line/Against the spread
In each of the Braves’ 9 wins during Strider’s last 10 starts, they won by at least 2 runs. They’ve given him good run support, too, averaging 7.1 runs in his last 10 starts, which makes his job easier.
BET BRAVES -1.5 (-105) to cover the spread and win by multiple runs.
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Over/Under
In their 1st 3 meetings this season, the total went under twice, the lone exception being a 9-3 win by the Braves in May. The total went Under in Bello’s start against Atlanta earlier this year, a 5-2 win by the Red Sox.
BET UNDER 9.5 (-105).
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