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The Atlanta Braves (64-34) and Boston Red Sox (53-47) open a 2-game set at Fenway Park Tuesday. First pitch is at 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Braves vs. Red Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Tied 1-1
The Braves have cooled to a degree after spending much of the month as one of the best teams in baseball. They’re just 4-6 over the last 10, but they have won 3 of 4 after a series win over the Milwaukee Brewers over the weekend. Atlanta has been a great road team at 32-15 and is 21-17 in interleague play.
The Red Sox took 2 of 3 from the New York Mets and have been above average of late. They’re 13-7 and 18-14 over the last 20 and 30 games to pull within 9 games in the AL East. They have not announced a starter for Tuesday, but we expect to see RHP Nick Pivetta go in bulk.
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Braves at Red Sox projected starters
RHP Charlie Morton vs. RHP Nick Pivetta
Morton (10-7, 3.36 ERA) makes his 20th start. He has a 1.37 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 in 109 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 5 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 4 K Wednesday against the Arizona Diamondbacks
- Last 5 regular season starts vs. Red Sox: 3-0, 3.72 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 32 K in 29 IP
Pivetta (6-5, 4.38 ERA) makes his 9th start and 25th appearance. He has a 1.20 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 11.3 K/9 in 76 innings.
- In 4 appearances in July: 2-0, 1.69 ERA, 0.69 WHIP, 28 K in 16 IP
- Career vs. Braves: 18 games, 15 starts, 6-4, 5.34 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 7.7 K/9
Braves at Red Sox odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:45 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Braves -145 (bet $145 to win $100) | Red Sox +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves -1.5 (+125) | Red Sox +1.5 (-150)
- Over/Under (O/U): 10 (O: -120 | U: +100)
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Braves at Red Sox picks and predictions
Prediction
Braves 7, Red Sox 4
Moneyline
The Braves have far more firepower. Morton was knocked around in his last start, but he allowed 1 ER in 19 IP in his 3 previous starts. The Red Sox are banged up, and it’ll be tough to keep this “Hotlanta” team off the board.
In a battle of who can score the most, I’m backing the BRAVES -150.
Run line/Against the spread
Each of the last 10 meetings have been decided by multiple runs. The Braves are a solid 26-19 on the RL on the road, and Boston is just 23-26 at home.
That’s all I need to roll with BRAVES -1.5 (+125).
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Over/Under
Each team is 5-3 O/U over their last 8 games. The Over is 7-2-1 in the last 10 head-to-head matchups. This is a big number, but these teams have hit it in 7 of the last 10 matchups.
I’m only willing to go a HALF-UNIT, but take the OVER 10 (-120).
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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