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The Baltimore Orioles (59-38) and Tampa Bay Rays (61-40) play the 3rd installment of a 4-game series Saturday at Tropicana Field. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Orioles vs. Rays odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
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Season series: Orioles lead 4-3
The Orioles picked up a 4-3 victory in the series opener Thursday, but the Rays responded with a 3-0 win on Friday night behind 7 scoreless IP from RHP Zach Eflin. The teams remain tied for the top spot in the AL East, although the O’s are technically ahead due to a better winning percentage (.608 vs. .604).
The Orioles are a solid 10-3 across the past 13 games overall, while going 13-6 in the previous 19 contests inside the AL East.
The Rays snapped a 5-game losing skid with the shutout win. It was the 1st shutout victory since June 6 against the Minnesota Twins, and the 10th shutout win overall for the Rays. Tampa Bay has recorded 7 shutout wins at home, too. The Rays also blanked the Orioles 3-0 in Baltimore back on May 8 behind Saturday’s starter, All-Star LHP Shane McClanahan.
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Orioles at Rays projected starters
RHP Grayson Rodriguez vs. LHP Shane McClanahan
Rodriguez (2-2, 7.33 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 1.75 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 in 50 1/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 4 K in a 6-4 home loss vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers Monday
- 2023 road splits: 1-0, 5.32 ERA (23 2/3 IP, 14 ER – 6 HR), .266 opponent batting average (OBA) in 7 starts
- 2023 vs. TB: Win, 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 4 K in a 4-2 home win May 9
McClanahan (11-1, 2.56 ERA) makes his 19th start. He has a 1.13 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 in 102 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 6 K in a 3-2 road loss vs. the Texas Rangers Monday
- 2023 home splits: 5-0, 1.89 ERA (47 2/3 IP, 10 ER – 4 HR), .184 OBA in 8 starts
- 2023 vs. BAL: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 4 BB, 7 K in a 3-0 road win May 8
Orioles at Rays odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:14 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Orioles +150 (bet $100 to win $150) | Rays -185 (bet $185 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Orioles +1.5 (-140) | Rays -1.5 (+115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Orioles at Rays picks and predictions
Prediction
Rays 5, Orioles 2
Moneyline
The Rays (-185) are just a tad bit pricey for my liking, as I usually like to set a personal moneyline limit of -180 for a singular play. Plus, Tampa Bay is a little on the risky side, since it has won just 4 of the past 16 games overall.
AVOID, and look to the run line instead.
Run line/Against the spread
The RAYS -1.5 (+115) are priced a little more reasonably on the run line. While yes, just 4 victories in the past 16 games overall is a problem, Tampa Bay has won each of those 4 games by 2 or more runs. So if you like the Rays to win, you should also like them to cash on the run line.
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Over/Under
UNDER 7.5 (-105) is the lean, but go lightly.
While Rodriguez did a solid job shutting down the Rays in his first start against them in May, I don’t think he can replicate those numbers in St. Pete. However, I feel good about McClanahan doing a good job on his home field.
We had just 3 total runs in this battle of AL East titans on Friday, and we should see a 3rd Under result in as many games in this series on Saturday.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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