The Baltimore Orioles (58-37) and Tampa Bay Rays (60-39) open a pivotal 4-game AL East series Thursday as they jockey for positioning atop the division. First pitch from Tropicana Field will be 6:40 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Orioles vs. Rays odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Orioles lead 3-2
The Orioles beat the Los Angeles Dodgers 8-5 Wednesday to avoid being swept in the 3-game series. Baltimore has been on a tear lately, even after dropping 2 of 3 against Los Angeles, as it entered on an 8-game win streak. The O’s surging offense has helped the cause and ranks 8th in runs scored (473) this season.
The Rays have sputtered coming out of the All-Star break, going 2-4 in their last 6 games — including a current 4-game losing skid after being swept by the Texas Rangers in 3 games to start the week. Tampa Bay still owns the best ERA in baseball (3.73) and is 4th in runs scored (526).
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Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays projected starters
RHP Kyle Gibson vs. RHP Tyler Glasnow
Gibson (9-6, 4.77 ERA) makes his 21st start. He has a 1.35 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 7.0 K/9 through 115 IP.
- Is tied for the MLB lead with 20 starts
- Has allowed at least 4 earned runs in 4 of his last 5 turns
Glasnow (3-3, 3.78 ERA) makes his 10th start. He has a 1.24 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 13.4 K/9 through 47 2/3 IP.
- The Rays are 5-4 in his 9 starts
- Has allowed just 1 earned run in 3 of his last 4 starts, going at least 5 innings in all 4 appearances
Orioles at Rays odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:13 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Orioles +150 (bet $100 to win $150) | Rays -185 (bet $185 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Orioles +1.5 (-135) | Rays -1.5 (+110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Orioles at Rays picks and predictions
Prediction
Rays 5, Orioles 2
Moneyline
These 2 teams are tied for the lead in the AL East, which makes this a huge series. The Rays (-185) have been the better team all season long and I think they’ll get back on track with a stud like Glasnow on the mound after getting swept by the Rangers.
However, the value just isn’t there with this moneyline price, especially against a quality team in the Orioles.
PASS.
Run line/Against the spread
Gibson has struggled as of late, allowing at least 4 runs in 4 of his last 5 starts. That doesn’t bode well for the Orioles, who are facing a potent Rays lineup and an ace in Glasnow.
After passing on the ML, I’m comfortable with the Rays covering. Tampa has 5 wins in Glasnow starts, and they were all by at least 2 runs.
BET RAYS -1.5 (+110).
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Over/Under
Eight or more runs have been scored only once in Glasnow’s last 4 starts. He should be able to limit the Orioles’ offense, but the bigger question is whether Gisbon can do the same against the Rays.
As long as Gibson can give Baltimore a quality start, the total on this game should go Under, as it has in 3 of the first 5 meetings of the season between these teams.
BET UNDER 8 (-105).
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