The New York Mets (42-46) and San Diego Padres (41-47) play the 2nd of a 3-game set Saturday at Petco Park. First pitch is at 10:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mets vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Mets lead 3-1
Don’t ring the alarm just yet, but the Mets have won 6 straight games after securing a 7-5 victory in 10 innings Friday in the series opener. That’s half of the win total they have over their last 30 games as they have stumbled to 17 1/2 games back of the NL East-leading Atlanta Braves. New York improved to 5-1 in extra innings by scoring 4 runs in the top 10th inning Friday in a game that had been tied 3-3 since the top of the 5th frame.
The Padres had won 4 of 5 entering this series and sit 9 1/2 games out in the NL West. The Friars are 8-12 and 14-16 over the last 20 and 30 games, respectively, as they just have not found consistency. San Diego is 5-15 in 1-run games.
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Mets at Padres projected starters
LHP David Peterson vs. LHP Blake Snell
Peterson (2-6, 6.61 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 1.67 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 in 49 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 3 K vs. San Francisco Giants Sunday
- 1 career start vs. Padres: 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 6 K on April 11
Snell (5-7, 3.03 ERA) makes his 18th start. He has a 1.26 WHIP, 4.5 BB/9 and 11.8 K/9 in 92 IP.
- Last start: Win, 5 IP, 0 ER, 7 H, 4 BB, 7 K Monday against Los Angeles Angels
- Last 5 starts vs. Mets: 2-3, 3.60 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 28 K in 25 IP
Mets at Padres odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:34 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Mets +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Padres -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets +1.5 (-140) | Padres -1.5 (+115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Mets at Padres picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 5, Mets 4
Moneyline
The bugaboos for Snell, other than injuries, have been his control. He reaches a ton of 3-ball counts, has a lot of walks and naturally doesn’t go very deep into games. He has only allowed 70 hits in 92 innings and has struck out 121. That tells you how good his stuff is. I like the Padres here, but not at this price – especially when the Mets have won 6 straight.
PASS.
Instead, let’s focus on Snell’s 7.5-strikeout number. He had 7 K’s in his last start and 8+ in 5 straight before that. So it’s within his abilities to fan 8 here. However, the Mets are the 5th-toughest team to strike out. Snell has also averaged just 4.5 K’s over his last 4 starts against them. I’ll take BLAKE SNELL UNDER 7.5 K’s (-120).
Run line/Against the spread
The Mets are hot, but the main concern is the 6.61 ERA on the mound Saturday. Peterson has been good in his last 2 starts, yielding just 1 ER in 10 IP. I think he can keep the Mets at least in the game to try to win the battle of bullpens.
Take the METS +1.5 (-140).
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Over/Under
San Diego is 7-1-2 O/U over their last 10 games and the Mets are 3-5-2. The Over is 4-6 in the last 10 meetings between the clubs. One of the teams has scored at least 5 runs in 7 of the last 8 meetings. There also figures to be a lot of traffic on the bases with the number of walks each pitcher gives up.
LEAN OVER 8 (-115).
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