The Cincinnati Reds (48-39) and Washington Nationals (34-52) wrap up a 4-game set Thursday at Nationals Park. First pitch is set for 1:05 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Reds vs. Nationals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Reds lead 3-0 after Wednesday’s 9-2 victory
The Reds have re-taken a 2-game lead in the NL Central with 3 straight wins in the nation’s capital. Cincinnati has won 4 in a row overall, and it has cut its run differential down to minus-8 on the season by outscoring Washington 20-8 in the first 3 games.
The Nationals had won 3 straight series coming into Monday’s game, but Washington is guaranteed of losing this series regardless of Thursday’s outcome. The Nats have struggled in the pitching department lately, allowing 43 runs across the past 5 games as the Over has gone 3-1-1.
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Reds at Nationals projected starters
LHP Brandon Williamson vs. LHP MacKenzie Gore
Williamson (1-2, 5.56 ERA) makes his 10th start. He has a 1.40 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 7.0 K/9 across 43 2/3 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 5 K in a 12-5 home loss vs. the San Diego Padres Saturday
- 2023 road splits: 1-1, 5.82 ERA (17 IP, 11 ER – 2 HR) with a .266 opponent batting average (OBA) in 4 starts
Gore (4-7, 4.48 ERA) makes his 18th start. He has a 1.47 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 10.9 K/9 through 88 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 2 2/3 IP, 7 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 3 K in a 19-4 road loss vs. the Philadelphia Phillies Saturday
- 2023 home splits: 1-4, 4.75 ERA (36 IP, 19 ER – 7 HR) with a .303 OBA in 7 starts
Reds at Nationals odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:03 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Reds +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Nationals -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Reds +1.5 (-190) | Nationals -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under (O/U): 10 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Reds at Nationals picks and predictions
Prediction
Nationals 6, Reds 5
Moneyline
The NATIONALS (-120) are worth a look in the series finale as Washington looks to salvage at least one victory in the 4-game set.
The first-place Reds have looked good so far in this series, but Williamson has been quite erratic in his rookie season — especially on the road.
Cincinnati is just 7-15 in its last 22 road games against a left-handed starting pitcher and 3-10 in the past 13 in Game 4 of a series, too.
Run line/Against the spread
The Reds +1.5 (-190) are quite expensive if you’d like a little insurance, and just don’t trust Cincinnati to finish off the 4-game sweep. With 2 shaky left-handed starting pitchers, no lead is going to be safe early in the contest.
PASS.
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Over/Under
OVER 10 (-105) is the lean as both Williamson and Gore have been very giving this season.
The Over is 5-0 in the past 5 road games for the Reds against left-handed starting pitchers and is 9-3 in their past 12 games overall. The Over is also 5-1 in Cincinnati’s past 6 vs. the NL East.
The Over has cashed at a 3-0-1 clip for the Nats in the past 4 games following a loss and is 3-1-1 in their past 5 games overall while going 4-1 in the previous 5 in Game 4 of a series, too.
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