The Philadelphia Phillies (44-39) and Tampa Bay Rays (57-30) meet Tuesday as they open a 3-game series in St. Petersburg. First pitch at Tropicana Field is slated for 4:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Rays odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting since 2021; Tampa Bay has won 7 straight series games since 2020
Philadelphia drubbed the Washington Nationals 19-4 Saturday, but was dealt a pair of 1-run losses in a 2-1 weekend-series defeat. The Phillies, who were off Monday, are 3rd in the NL East, 12 1/2 games back of the Atlanta Braves.
Tampa Bay was also off Monday after returning from a 3-3 road trip to Arizona and Seattle. The Rays have slowed down since winning 7 straight from June 3-9; they are 10-11 since. During that stretch, Tampa Bay has logged a 4.88 ERA in going 4-4 at home. They lead the AL East by 6 games.
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Phillies at Rays projected starters
RHP Aaron Nola vs. RHP Zach Eflin
Nola (7-5, 4.51 ERA) makes his 18th start. He owns a 1.12 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 in 105 2/3 innings.
- Allowed 4 runs in his last start and owns a 4.81 ERA since May 25
- Has a 3.40 ERA on home turf, but a 5.34 figure on the road
Eflin (9-3, 3.29 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has registered a 1.03 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 in 90 1/3 innings.
- Has been tougher this year on left-handed bats. That’ll be a big key against a left-loaded, righty-bashing Philadelphia club that, since June 1, owns a .781 OPS against righties.
- Has a 2.17 ERA, 0.89 WHIP at Tropicana
- Pitched for Philadelphia from 2016-22
- Has gone 6-plus innings in 10 of his last 11 starts
Phillies at Rays odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:59 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Phillies +124 (bet $100 to win $124) | Rays -146 (bet $146 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-176) | Rays -1.5 (+146)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Phillies at Rays picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 4, Rays 3
Moneyline
Nola has been sharper of late than what shows in his surface line. The veteran righty does well to limit hard contact, but he’s been perhaps a bit unlucky in his percentage of fly balls hit over the fence. Like Eflin, he’s missing a lot of bats in the zone lately. He’s backed by a quality bullpen, and that fact looks to be muddied by the surface ERAs for both clubs (Philadelphia 3.89, Tampa Bay 3.82). Rays relievers have been bolstered by a .259 batting average on balls in play.
Philadelphia has been the sharper club of late, and the Phils are 3-1 over their last 4 games after an off day (Tampa 0-3 in their last 3 in such situations).
TAKE THE PHILLIES (+124).
Run line/Against the spread
More juice here, which looks to be cutting too far into Philly’s leverage. PASS.
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Over/Under
Crisscrossing signals on both sides of the balls and for both teams. AVOID.
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