The Miami Marlins (47-34) and Boston Red Sox (40-41) wrap up their 3-game series on Thursday as Miami goes for the sweep in Boston. First pitch from Fenway Park will be at 6:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Marlins vs. Red Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Marlins lead 2-0, outscoring the Red Sox 16-3
The Marlins are one of the hottest teams in baseball, winning their last 4 games and 18 of their last 25 to pull within 6 1/2 games of the NL East-leading Atlanta Braves. They won the 1st 2 games against the Red Sox in convincing fashion, 10-1 and 6-2.
The Red Sox are trending in the opposite direction, losing their last 4 games and 6 of their last 7 to fall below .500. They sit in last place in the AL East, 14 games back of the leading Tampa Bay Rays, despite scoring the 8th-most runs in MLB.
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Marlins at Red Sox projected starters
LHP Jesus Luzardo vs. RHP RHP Brayan Bello
Luzardo (6-5, 3.77 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.19 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 10.2 K/9 in 90 2/3 innings.
- Was dominant in his last start: 7 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 9 K and no-decision in a 3-1 loss to the Pittsburgh Pirates on Friday
- He’s 2-2 with a 3.99 ERA this month
Bello (5-4, 3.27 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.27 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 in 66 innings.
- Hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in a start since 1st start in April
- Has a 2.36 ERA in June, allowing just 7 ER in 26 2/3 IP
Marlins at Red Sox odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:10 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Marlins -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Red Sox -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins -1.5 (+140) | Red Sox +1.5 (-165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Marlins at Red Sox picks and predictions
Prediction
Marlins 5, Red Sox 3
Moneyline
It was surprising to see the Red Sox initially open as the slight favorites in this matchup, given the way they’ve played as of late. Bello should be their stopper during this 4-game losing skid, but the Marlins are red hot.
Luzardo was outstanding in his last start against the Pirates and I expect him to have similar success against Boston. BET MARLINS (-115) to win outright.
Run line/Against the spread
Only 2 of the Marlins’ last 10 wins have been by 1 run, so they’ve done a nice job of beating their opponents in fairly dominant fashion with 2 wins by 9-plus runs. I like the value of taking Miami to win by at least a couple of runs, as it did in the first 2 games of the series.
BET MARLINS -1.5 (+140).
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Over/Under
According to Covers, the Under is 5-0 in the Marlins’ last 5 games when scoring at least 5 runs in their previous game. It’s also 7-0 in the Red Sox’s last 7 games when allowing at least 5 runs in their previous game.
I think the Marlins will come back down to earth a little bit against Bello after scoring 10 runs on Wednesday. BET UNDER 9 (-105).
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