The Cleveland Guardians (31-36) and San Diego Padres (33-34) meet Thursday in the finale of a 3-game set. First pitch at Petco Park is slated for 8:40 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Guardians vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: San Diego leads 2-0
In a 14-game stretch prior to this series, Cleveland had scored 5.43 RPG while banging out a robust .811 OPS. However, in this series that has been San Diego wins of 5-0 Wednesday and 6-3 Tuesday, the Guardians have scored just 3 runs and only have 2 extra-base hits.
San Diego won 2 of 3 games at the Colorado Rockies over the weekend and is 5-1 over its last 6 games. The Padres have hit 13 home runs over that stretch, including 4 round-trippers in Wednesday’s victory.
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Guardians at Padres projected starters
LHP Logan Allen vs. LHP Ryan Weathers
Allen (3-2, 3.31 ERA) makes his 10th start of the season. He has registered a 1.39 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 through 51 2/3 IP.
- A 24-year-old rookie who coughed up a career-high 5 runs in his last start
- Owns a 1.90 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 4 outings away from home
Weathers (1-4, 4.93 ERA) makes his 9th start and 11th appearance. He has a 1.49 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 5.9 K/9 through 38 1/3 IP.
- Is used as a short-inning starter: has thrown just 8 2/3 innings over his last 3 starts
- Owns a 6.06 career ERA at Petco Park across 12 starts and 6 relief appearances
Guardians at Padres odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:38 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Guardians +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Padres -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians +1.5 (-170) | Padres -1.5 (+140)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
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Guardians at Padres picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 5, Guardians 4
Moneyline
There is a lean toward playing the Padres and fading the Guardians when considering team performances versus underlying indicators. But the mound match-up, at least in the first 3 or 4 innings, does not line up with a San Diego play.
A Padres -120 or maybe -123 would make for some interest on that side, but otherwise… PASS.
Run line/Against the spread
The Friars are also a would-be lean on the run line, save for the above note on what Weathers does to the equation. Add in a Cleveland penchant for 1-run games (30 so far), and STEER CLEAR.
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Over/Under
San Diego is at its best against lefty pitching (.773 OPS). Both bullpens figure to be sailing along with surface ERA well out of whack with talent levels due to low batting averages on balls in play (Cleveland .259, San Diego .261).
Cleveland’s subpar offense has shown enough signs of life lately — before this series — to be worthy of a piece of an Over.
BACK THE OVER 8.5 (-108).
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