The Miami Heat will host the Denver Nuggets for Game 4 of the NBA Finals on Friday at Kaseya Center. Tip-off is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET (ABC). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Nuggets vs. Heat odds, and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.
The Nuggets cruised to a 109-94 victory in Game 3 on Wednesday to cover as 3.5-point road favorites. The Under of 213 points hit in Game 3 and Denver has taken a 2-1 lead in the series.
In Wednesday’s 15-point win, the Nuggets got 30-point triple-doubles from C Nikola Jokic and G Jamal Murray, who became the 1st duo in NBA history to both record a 30-point triple-double in a game.
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Nuggets at Heat odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:35 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Nuggets -165 (bet $165 to win $100) | Heat +140 (bet $100 to win $140)
- Against the spread (ATS): Nuggets -3.5 (-110) | Heat +3.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 210.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Nuggets at Heat key injuries
Nuggets
- Not yet submitted
Heat
- None
For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.
Nuggets at Heat picks and predictions
Prediction
Heat 108, Nuggets 105
Moneyline
Miami can’t afford to lose Game 4 and head to Denver for Game 5 down 3-1 in the series, so I’ll back the HEAT (+140) at home in Friday’s tilt. The Heat are 6-3 at home in the playoffs and they have yet to lose 2 straight home games in the postseason.
Against the spread
HEAT +3.5 (-110) is the pick if you need a little insurance and can’t bet Miami to win outright. F Jimmy Butler looked more aggressive in Game 3 and C Bam Adebayo has been fantastic in this series thus far, while the role players on the Heat will step up in a crucial home game.
Over/Under
LEAN OVER 210.5 (-110).
The Under has connected in 2 of the 1st 3 games of the series as the Heat have had trouble getting consistent performances on the offensive end. That being said, Jokic and Murray are scoring at a nice clip, and it’s tough betting against Butler in a must-win setting.
The Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Miami and 6-2 in the last 8 meetings overall.
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