The Cincinnati Reds (26-31) welcome the Milwaukee Brewers (30-27) to Great American Ball Park Saturday. First pitch is set for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Brewers vs. Reds odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Brewers lead 1-0.
The Reds have now lost 2 straight games after snapping their 5-game winning streak. Cincinnati is 14-15 at home this season.
Milwaukee, which leads the NL Central, is 14-15 on the road and 5-5 over its last 10 games. The Brewers have traded off winning and losing over their last 6 games, beating the Reds 5-4 in 11 innings Friday.
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Brewers at Reds projected starters
RHP Colin Rea vs. RHP Graham Ashcraft
Rea (2-3, 4.89 ERA) makes his 9th start. He has a 1.20 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 7.43 K/9 through 42 1/3 IP.
- The Brewers won 7-5 in Rea’s last start Sunday. He went 6 innings and gave up 4 earned runs, striking out 6.
- The 32-year-old has won his last 2 games but has allowed at least 4 earned runs in his 9 appearances. Milwaukee is 5-4 in his 9 appearances.
Ashcraft (3-3, 5.55 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 1.49 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 through 58 1/3 IP.
- Ashcraft had 6 strikeouts in an 8-5 win over the Cubs his last time on the mound Sunday. He allowed 3 earned runs in 5 innings.
- The Reds are 6-5 in Ashcraft’s 11 starts. He has pitched at least 5 innings in 4 straight starts.
Brewers at Reds odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:50 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Brewers -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Reds -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Brewers -1.5 (+135) | Reds +1.5 (-165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 10 (O: -120 | U: +100)
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Brewers at Reds picks and predictions
Prediction
Reds 6, Brewers 5
Moneyline
BET REDS (-105).
The Brewers have had a consistency problem this season. They have traded off winning and losing over their last 6 games, suggesting they’re primed to come up short. Milwaukee is just 14-15 on the road and just 4-6 as a road favorite.
The Reds have cooled down over their last 2, but they are 7-4 over their last 11 games. They have played far better over the last few weeks, and at home following an extra-innings loss, Cincinnati is a good play here.
Take REDS (-105).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
Trends point to the Reds being the better play here, but I would ultimately pass as +1.5 (-165) is too expensive. The Brewers don’t pose enough value given how they have played on the road this season as well.
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Over/Under
LEAN OVER 10 (-120).
Neither team has an ace on the mound here. The Reds have gone Over in 5 of their last 7 games and are 16-13 O/U at home this season.
The Brewers have been better on the Under this season, but Rea has struggled in several of his starts. He has given up at least 4 earned runs in 2 of his last 3 starts.
Back the OVER 10 (-120) for a small unit.
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