Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Chicago Cubs (25-31) and San Diego Padres (26-31) meet Saturday for the 2nd of a 4-game series. First pitch from Petco Park is set for 10:10 p.m. ET (FS1). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Cubs vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Cubs lead 1-0

Chicago won 2-0 as +160 road underdogs Friday in Game 1 of this series. Chicago got off to a 1-0 lead thanks to an RBI by LF Ian Happ in the 3rd inning. The Cubs would add to their lead thanks to a 5th-inning HR by SS Dansby Swanson.

Chicago has now won 3 of its last 5, and the Padres are now 2-3 in their last 5. Chicago has a 10-15 road record while the Padres have a 12-16 home record and are 2-5 in their last 7 home games.

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Cubs at Padres projected starters

LHP Drew Smyly vs. RHP Yu Darvish

Smyly (5-2, 3.45 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 1.05 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 through 60 IP.

  • Last outing: Loss, 4 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 2 K, in a 8-5 home loss Sunday vs. Cincinnati Reds
  • Career vs. San Diego: 1-1 with a 2.38 ERA (22 2/3 IP, 6 ER), 12 H, 3 HR, 6 BB, 26 K across 5 appearances (3 starts)

Darvish (3-4, 4.61 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 1.20 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 through 56 2/3 IP.

  • Last outing: Loss, 2 2/3 IP, 7 ER, 7 H, 0 BB, 2 K, in a 10-7 road loss Sunday vs. New York Yankees
  • Career vs. Chicago: 1-2 with a 2.33 ERA (19 1/3 IP, 5 ER), 10 H, 2 HR, 6 BB, 24 K through 3 starts

Cubs at Padres odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:20 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Cubs +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Padres -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cubs +1.5 (-145) | Padres -1.5 (+120)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Cubs at Padres picks and predictions

Prediction

Padres 4, Cubs 3

Moneyline

PASS. 

I like the Padres to win this game, but at -175 the line here is simply not worth the juice. Bet on the run line and/or O/U.

Run line/Against the spread

BET CUBS +1.5 (-145). 

The Cubs have been solid against the Padres as of late, with a 5-1 record in the last 6 meetings in San Diego. Couple that with the Padres’ home struggles recently, and you’ve got a recipe for the Cubs to at least make this a close game even if they don’t win.

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Over/Under

BET UNDER 8 (-115). 

For Chicago the Under is 4-0 in their last 4 overall and 4-0-1 in Smyly’s last 5 starts after allowing 2 or less runs in the previous game. For San Diego, the Under is 4-0 in their last 4 Saturday games and 4-0 in Darvish’s last 4 home starts.

The Under is also 5-0 in the last 5 meetings overall.

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