The Washington Nationals (24-32) welcome the Philadelphia Phillies (25-31) to Nationals Park Friday for the opener of a 3-game set. First pitch is set for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Nationals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting of 2023; Philadelphia won 16 of 19 meetings in 2022
The Phillies are riding a 4-game losing skid, dropping all 3 games on the road to the New York Mets to start the week, including a 4-2 loss in the finale Thursday. Philadelphia scored just 3 runs in the series with New York and is just 5-12 over its last 17 games.
The Nationals are returning home off a 3-3 road trip, winning 2 of 3 at the Kansas City Royals last weekend and 1 of 3 at the Los Angeles Dodgers to start the week — including a 10-6 victory Wednesday. Washington is 6-5 over its last 11 games and is last in the NL East, 9 games back of the division-leading Atlanta Braves and 1 game behind the Phillies.
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Phillies at Nationals projected starters
RHP Zack Wheeler vs. RHP Josiah Gray
Wheeler (4-4, 3.60 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 1.14 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 through 65 IP.
- The Phillies are 6-5 in his starts
- Has given up at least 3 earned runs in 3 of his last 5 outings
- Is coming off his best outing of the season: Win, 8 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 12 K at the Atlanta Braves Saturday
Gray (4-5, 2.77 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 1.41 WHIP, 4.5 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 through 61 2/3 IP.
- Gray has been far better at limiting home runs, allowing 6 after leading the league by allowing 38 last season.
- The Nationals are 5-6 in his starts
- Last outing: No-decision, 4 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 4 K, at Kansas City Royals Saturday
Phillies at Nationals odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:53 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Phillies -185 (bet $185 to win $100) | Nationals +150 (bet $100 to win $150)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (-115) | Nationals +1.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Phillies at Nationals picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 4, Nationals 3
Moneyline
PASS.
The Phillies (-185) are just 11-21 on the road this season, so backing them at a juicy price tag doesn’t make much sense. Focus on the run line and/or total instead.
Run line/Against the spread
BET NATIONALS +1.5 (-105).
Philadelphia is 11-22 on the run line as a favorite, and it has been struggling recently with just 5 outright wins in its last 17 games.
Washington is 35-21 against the spread (ATS) this season as well, the 2nd best mark in the league. The Nats are 33-21 ATS as underdogs and 2-0 ATS with a rest advantage, which they have in this situation.
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Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 9 (-115).
The Phillies are just 23-29-4 O/U this season with the Nationals sitting at 25-28-3 O/U.
Both Gray and Wheeler are among the best pitchers on their respective teams, so runs may be at a premium in this one. Washington is 2-3 O/U in its last 5 while Philadelphia is 1-4 O/U in its last 5.
Back the UNDER 9 (-115).
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