The Philadelphia Phillies (15-13) and Houston Astros (14-13) close out a 3-game set at Minute Maid Park on Sunday Night Baseball. First pitch is at 7:10 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Astros odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Phillies lead 2-0
The Phillies came into Houston and rode their co-aces Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler to 3-1 and 6-1 wins Friday and Saturday. They’ve won 8 of 10 to claw back within 3 1/2 games in the NL East division.
Houston has struggled at home at just 6-9 on the year. They Astros are just treading water — they’re 6-4 in the last 10 games — while 2B Jose Altuve (thumb) rehabs from a broken thumb. Part of the problem is their offense has yet to get started at 16th with 4.60 runs/9. Houston has scored just 1 run in each of last 3 games.
[gambcom-standard rankid=”3011″ ]
[gambcom-standard rankid=”3012″ ]
Phillies at Astros projected starters
LHP Bailey Falter vs. RHP Jose Urquidy
Falter (0-4, 4.50 ERA) makes his 6th start this season. He has a 1.14 WHIP, 1.3 BB/9 and 6.1 K/9 in 28 IP.
- Last start vs. Seattle Mariners Tuesday: 6 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 7 K
- 1 career appearance vs. Houston: 1 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 0 BB, 0 K
Urquidy (1-2, 5.64 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 1.75 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 8.1 K/9 in 22 1/3 IP.
- Last start Monday vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 2 2/3 IP, 6 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 3 K
- Has never faced Phillies
- Is 3-1 with a 3.13 ERA, 1.24 WHIP in 9 career interleague games (8 starts
Phillies at Astros odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:34 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Phillies +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Astros +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-160) | Astros -1.5 (+135)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: +100 | U: -120)
Win your fantasy baseball league with BaseballHQ.com. For decades, BHQ has been helping players just like you win! Use the couple code SBW23 for $15 OFF a Draft Prep or full-season subscription. New customer offer; expires 4/30/2023. Subscribe today and start winning!
Phillies at Astros picks and predictions
Prediction
Astros 5, Phillies 3
Moneyline
Houston will avoid the sweep as long as Urquidy can straighten it out. He has allowed 10 ER over 7 IP in his last 2 starts. Because of that, I’m going to pass on the -150 ML and head to the Win/Total section. Under Moneyline and Both Teams to Score 2 or More Runs, take ASTROS AND YES +135.
Run line/Against the spread
The Astros boast the 6th-best bullpen ERA at 3.09. Philadelphia is 24th at 4.59. Even if Urquidy gives up 4 or 5 again, I still like Houston’s chances against Philadelphia’s pen. The Phillies benefitted from 8 shutout innings from Nola and 6 shutout innings from Wheeler. That won’t be the case Sunday.
Take the ASTROS -1.5 (+135).
Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!
Over/Under
It’s 84 degrees with an 8-mph wind blowing out to right-center. Both teams have been Under teams as Philadelphia is 2-8 O/U, and Houston is 3-6-1 O/U over the last 10 games. Houston has cashed 4 Unders in a row. The Under is 6-0-1 in the last 7 between the teams and 3-0-1 in Houston.
Take the UNDER 9 (-120).
[gambcom-standard rankid=”5″ ]
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
Follow Ryan Dodson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
Additional MLB coverage:
BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
BaseballPress.com: Your source for every MLB lineup
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]