Philadelphia Phillies at Houston Astros odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Houston Astros odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Philadelphia Phillies (15-13) and Houston Astros (14-13) close out a 3-game set at Minute Maid Park on Sunday Night Baseball. First pitch is at 7:10 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Astros odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Phillies lead 2-0

The Phillies came into Houston and rode their co-aces Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler to 3-1 and 6-1 wins Friday and Saturday. They’ve won 8 of 10 to claw back within 3 1/2 games in the NL East division.

Houston has struggled at home at just 6-9 on the year. They Astros are just treading water — they’re 6-4 in the last 10 games — while 2B Jose Altuve (thumb) rehabs from a broken thumb. Part of the problem is their offense has yet to get started at 16th with 4.60 runs/9. Houston has scored just 1 run in each of last 3 games.

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Phillies at Astros projected starters

LHP Bailey Falter vs. RHP Jose Urquidy

Falter (0-4, 4.50 ERA) makes his 6th start this season. He has a 1.14 WHIP, 1.3 BB/9 and 6.1 K/9 in 28 IP.

  • Last start vs. Seattle Mariners Tuesday: 6 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 7 K
  • 1 career appearance vs. Houston: 1 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 0 BB, 0 K

Urquidy (1-2, 5.64 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 1.75 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 8.1 K/9 in 22 1/3 IP.

  • Last start Monday vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 2 2/3 IP, 6 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 3 K
  • Has never faced Phillies
  • Is 3-1 with a 3.13 ERA, 1.24 WHIP in 9 career interleague games (8 starts

Phillies at Astros odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:34 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Phillies +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Astros +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-160) | Astros -1.5 (+135)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: +100 | U: -120)

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Phillies at Astros picks and predictions

Prediction

Astros 5, Phillies 3

Moneyline

Houston will avoid the sweep as long as Urquidy can straighten it out. He has allowed 10 ER over 7 IP in his last 2 starts. Because of that, I’m going to pass on the -150 ML and head to the Win/Total section. Under Moneyline and Both Teams to Score 2 or More Runs, take ASTROS AND YES +135.

Run line/Against the spread

The Astros boast the 6th-best bullpen ERA at 3.09. Philadelphia is 24th at 4.59. Even if Urquidy gives up 4 or 5 again, I still like Houston’s chances against Philadelphia’s pen. The Phillies benefitted from 8 shutout innings from Nola and 6 shutout innings from Wheeler. That won’t be the case Sunday.

Take the ASTROS -1.5 (+135).

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Over/Under

It’s 84 degrees with an 8-mph wind blowing out to right-center. Both teams have been Under teams as Philadelphia is 2-8 O/U, and Houston is 3-6-1 O/U over the last 10 games. Houston has cashed 4 Unders in a row. The Under is 6-0-1 in the last 7 between the teams and 3-0-1 in Houston.

Take the UNDER 9 (-120).

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