The Pittsburgh Pirates (18-8) and Washington Nationals (9-15) clash in the opener of a 3-game set at PNC Park Friday. First pitch is at 7:05 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Pirates vs. Nationals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting of 2023. The Pirates took 4 of 7 games in 2022.
Pittsburgh is back on the road where it is 8-2 over its last 10 games. The Pirates are fresh off a 6-1 homestand bolstered by a 2.29 ERA and had Thursday off.
Washington is just 2-9 at home this season. The Nationals are a bottom-third team at the plate, scoring just 3.88 runs per game (23rd) with a .665 OPS (26th), and they’ve scored 2 runs or fewer in 6 of their 11 home games.
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Pirates at Nationals projected starters
LHP Rich Hill vs. RHP Chad Kuhl
Hill (2-2, 4.85 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 1.42 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 through 26 IP.
- Owns a road ERA of 3.58 since 2021
- Current Washington batters own an aggregate .819 OPS against him
Kuhl (0-1, 7.36 ERA) is making his 5th start of the 2023 season. He has a 1.75 WHIP, 5.9 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9 through 18 1/3 IP.
- Pitched for Pittsburgh from 2016-21
- Ninety-six pitches over each of his last 2 starts have netted a total of just 8 1/3 IP
Pirates at Nationals odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:07 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Pirates -132 (bet $132 to win $100) | Nationals +112 (bet $100 to win $112)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Pirates -1.5 (+122) | Nationals +1.5 (-146)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Pirates at Nationals picks and predictions
Prediction
Pirates 4, Nationals 3
Moneyline
Peg the Pirates as being improved, perhaps to a .500 or slightly above level, but not to the one where they’re operating now. These clubs have played opposite slates so far, with Pittsburgh benefiting from playing the likes of the Cincinnati Reds (twice), Colorado Rockies and Chicago White Sox. The Nats have had to deal with the Atlanta Braves, Baltimore Orioles, New York Mets and Minnesota Twins.
A different Washington starter would yield more confidence in the home nine here, but Kuhl has yielded a ton of barreled-up contact so far. The Nats are a lean but only an actionable one closer to a +120 return.
PASS.
Run line/Against the spread
Hill has thrown 95-plus pitches in each of his last 3 starts and that’s not something the 43-year-old southpaw does regularly. He has not hit that count in three straight games any other time in the last 5 years.
Washington has hit him well in the past and has been solid against lefty pitching (.760 OPS).
Both clubs have played more 1-run games than average. WASHINGTON +1.5 (-146) is worth a partial-unit play.
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Over/Under
The Pirates are likely due for some peel-back on both sides of the runs/runs allowed equation. Rainy, breeze-in weather conditions and Kuhl’s yielding rocket contact are also factors working against each other.
PASS.
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