The Milwaukee Brewers (8-4) continue a 10-game road trip Thursday with the opener of a 4-game series against the San Diego Padres (7-6). First pitch from Petco Park is at 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Brewers vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting of 2023. San Diego won 4 of 7 meetings in 2022.
The Brewers are coming off a 2-1 series loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks after dropping Wednesday’s finale 7-3. Milwaukee allowed 12 hits en route to its 3rd loss in the last 5 games.
The Padres return home following a 4-3 road trip. San Diego enters off a 2-1 series loss to the New York Mets after falling 5-2 Wednesday. The Padres scored both runs in the top of the 1st inning but gave up singles in the 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 6th and 7th innings.
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Brewers at Padres projected starters
RHP Bryse Wilson vs. RHP Nick Martinez
The Brewers have yet to announce a starter, but Wilson (0-0, 0.00 ERA) is rumored to make his 1st start of the season.
- This would normally be LHP Eric Lauer‘s turn in the rotation but he is reportedly pushed back
- Has tossed 6 scoreless innings with 2 H, 3 BB and 7 K across 3 relief appearances
- Went 3-8 with a 5.98 ERA and 1.48 WHIP over 20 games as a starter for the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2022
Martinez (0-1, 6.17 ERA) makes his 3rd start. He has a 1.46 WHIP, 7 BB and 9 K through 11 2/3 IP.
- Has allowed 4 ER in each of his starts
- Has allowed 4 R on 9 H and 3 BB with 9 K over 9 IP in 1 start and 1 relief appearance in his career vs. Milwaukee
Brewers at Padres odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:45 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Brewers +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Padres -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Brewers +1.5 (-155) | Padres -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Brewers at Padres picks and predictions
Prediction
Brewers 6, Padres 2
Moneyline
The Brewers have been hot and cold when it comes to plating runs recently. They’ve been shutout in 2 of their last 3 losses and were held scoreless in 8 innings Wednesday. However, Milwaukee bounced back and scored at least 6 runs in victories in the 2 games following being shutout.
The Padres seem to have to keep their opponent under 5 runs. San Diego has held opponents to 4 runs or fewer in each of its wins and has allowed 5 runs or more in each of its losses.
Expect the Brewers to bounce back with their bats and pick up the outright win.
BET BREWERS (+125).
Run line/Against the spread
The Padres are 2-5 ATS as favorites this season.
The Brewers are 2-3 ATS as underdogs, but the plus money odds on the moneyline are the better play considering I expect the outright win.
PASS.
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Over/Under
The Padres and the Brewers both have 4 games with 10 or more total runs this season.
Only 1 of their matchups last season had more than 9 runs.
BET UNDER 9 (-110).
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