The Minnesota Twins (3-0) and Miami Marlins (1-3) open a 3-game set Monday at loanDepot park. First pitch is slated for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Twins vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting since 2019. The Twins and Marlins have split 10 games since 2013.
Minnesota swept the Kansas City Royals in a Thursday-Sunday, season-opening series on the road. The Twins, who went just 32-49 (.395) away from home last season, allowed just 4 runs over their 3 games in K.C.
Miami heads into Monday’s game having lost back-to-back contests. The Marlins lost 3-of-4 to the New York Mets in a lid-lifting 4-game set in Miami and were outscored 17-8 along the way.
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Twins at Marlins projected starters
RHP Tyler Mahle vs. RHP Johnny Cueto
Mahle is making his 1st start of the 2023 season. He went 6-8 with a 4.40 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 in 120 2/3 IP across 19 starts for the Cincinnati Reds and 4 starts for the Minnesota Twins last season.
- Had an injury-marred shaky start at the outset of the 2022 season that resulted in a 6.32 ERA in his first 10 starts but rallied to log a 3.18 ERA and .650 OPS allowed in his last 13 starts.
- Has held current Miami batters to an aggregate .649 OPS.
Cueto is also making his season debut. He went 8-10 with a 3.35 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 5.8 K/9 across 158 1/3 IP as a member of the Chicago White Sox in 2022.
- Missed some spring workouts with general arm soreness; threw 61 pitches in a minor league start in his last Grapefruit League action.
- Has held current Minnesota bats to an aggregate .610 OPS.
Twins at Marlins odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:02 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Twins -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Marlins +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Twins -1.5 (+135) | Marlins +1.5 (-165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Twins at Marlins picks and predictions
Prediction
Minnesota 5, Miami 4
Moneyline
Minnesota’s bullpen is edging into fatigue territory/lack of availability at the back end after logging 11 innings over the last 3 games, but Mahle has been a solid road pitcher over his career (3.76 ERA), and there are enough questions about his mound opposite here to make the Twins a value at up to -135.
BACK MINNESOTA (-125).
Run line/Against the spread
The Minnesota bullpen situation opens up the Run Line action to a back-door loss late. Neither offense is off to a hot start, and it can be tough to work Run Line favorites in with low scores.
PASS.
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Over/Under
The Under is a combined 4-2-1 with these 2 clubs. In a pitcher’s yard, with two slow offenses, that would be a lean. However, a zag the other way includes the Minnesota ‘pen and perhaps Cueto. AVOID.
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